About five weeks after the turbulent presidential election of 2000, the public confusion and debate that flooded the event began to dim into the background, and the new president of the United States strode forward with a commitment to his nation: "I will work to earn your respect."
More than a year later, as national opinion polls have consistently shown high approval ratings for President George W. Bush, some Duke political scientists say the electorate's indecision about the president has turned into support, in part because of the Sept. 11 attacks.
"It's called the Orally-around-the-flag' phenomenon," said John Aldrich, professor of political science. "The people turn to their president [to lead them through a difficult time]."
Aldrich compared Bush's approval rates to those during the presidencies of Bush's father and Jimmy Carter, both of whom experienced a quick surge of unsustainable public popularity.
Aldrich said Bush's popularity surge is different from the past presidents'. "By this time, the phenomenon would have waned unless the public thought he was doing well," he said.
For another political scientist, Scott de Marchi, an assistant professor in the department, Sept. 11 caused the country to become more isolationist in its foreign policy.
"We withdrew from the European Union, the environmental pact," de Marchi said. "[Sept. 11] turned our foreign policy into something."
Although the public may have perceived Bush's response to Sept. 11 favorably, professors say the nation has quickly come to acknowledge another problem: the current economic recession. De Marchi said he thought the economic slump began prior to Sept. 11 and, in fact, before Bush came to office.
However, some say that the current state of economic anxiety heightened only more recently as a reaction to the occurrence of a national tragedy.
"We haven't had anything like [Sept. 11] happen in 20 years," said Jerry Hough, James B. Duke professor of political science. "I've always told my classes: You're a very unusual generation... rarely experiencing any major crises."
A controversial 10-year, $1.35 trillion tax cut, recently passed by Congress, comprises a significant part of Bush's economic relief strategy.
The proposal initiated a stir of protest from members of the Democratic Party. The final outcome of Bush's economic plan, however, will be long-term, said Michael Munger, chair of the political science department.
"There's very little politicians can do in the early part of an economic recession. But on the other hand, they want credit for [ending] it. By the time [Bush's] plans take effect, the recession will probably be over," he said.
Although Bush's popularity has carried him through his first year, he may not be able to give his fellow Republicans an advantage in the mid-term Congressional elections, Munger said.
"The president's popularity will be his," Munger said. "His party incumbents will lose several seats--traditionally, the president's party always does."
Others said that more recent national events may hurt congressional Republicans even more.
"Enron is going to help the Democrats," de Marchi said. "Cheney and Bush don't want to release records, basic information as to who attended the meetings and such. [Former president Bill] Clinton even provided that.... Their act is getting hard to sell. But then they start waving the patriotism flag."
Hough cautioned that a complex range of factors influence mid-term elections.
"It's too early for November," Hough said. "Two weeks is a long time in politics--a lot can happen, and will happen."
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.