For the past 20 years, North Carolina has been a "gimme" state for Republican presidential candidates. But this year, Republican presidential nominee Gov. George W. Bush of Texas isn't counting his Carolinian chickens before they hatch.
Following Democratic presidential nominee and vice president Al Gore's recent bounce in the polls, the Texas Governor has aired television commercials in North Carolina and 20 other states.
"We know that Democrats said they were going to make North Carolina a target," said Tucker Eskew, a spokesperson for the Bush campaign in Austin, Texas. "We expected a close race all along and a bounce after Gore's convention, and we have been making strategic decisions based on our predictions."
Despite Eskew's expectations of Gore's strategy, members of the Gore camp said that there are no current plans to air TV commercials in the state or for Gore and his running mate, Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, to visit.
Scott Falmlen, executive director of the North Carolina Democratic Party, explained that due to limited campaign resources, Gore is waiting to spend money and energy in the state.
"It's a matter of husbanding resources until the real campaign begins in the fall," he said.
Falmlen added that because the state has traditionally leaned Republican, past presidential candidates have not considered the state in play. This year, however, he thinks things could be different.
"I think North Carolina will be very competitive and I think Gore has a very good chance here," Falmlen said.
Eskew said that the political climate in North Carolina has changed in recent years. "North Carolina has a Democratic governor and a Democratic senator-who Gore nearly nominated for the vice presidency-and a sizable swing vote."
Michael Briggs, a spokesperson for North Carolina Senator John Edwards, said that Gore has the full support of the senator. Although Edwards currently has no formal plans to campaign for Gore in North Carolina, Briggs said that "Edwards has told former Commerce Secretary and campaign chairman Bill Daley that he stands ready to do whatever they want him to do."
Edwards reportedly also has told Daley that other states in the South could be within Gore's reach.
"Senator Edwards has said that several states in the South could be in play if the vice president's campaign wants to spend the resources to make them in play," Briggs said.
However, Ted Arrington, professor of political science at University of North Carolina in Charlotte, is skeptical of the vice president's chances in North Carolina.
"Even if he does really well nationally, I don't think he's going to win in North Carolina too," Arrington said.
He added, "It's a southern state, all of the southern states have been trending Republican for fifty years now. You just look at the past and you say, 'Is Gore going to beat that trend?' No. 'Is Bush some way repellent to good old southern boys?' No, he'll fit right in."
Based on this, Arrington does not expect Gore or Bush to spend much effort in North Carolina unless Gore is leading significantly in national polls, adding that Cheney's Charlotte visit later this week is mostly for fund-raising purposes.
"The only reason that Cheney is visiting is because [Charlotte] is where the banks are," he said. "As bank robbers say, you rob banks because that is where the money is."
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