If the word you hear these days is true, Joe Alleva is currently facing his first crucial decision since he took over as athletic director last spring.
Up until now, adding scholarships and allocating funds have been important, but they pale in comparison to the current dilemma.
Alleva has to make the call about the future of the football program. It's that simple and at the same time it means everything. This is a program with a head coach who, as of right now, is twisting in the wind.
The way I see it, though, it is not a decision that should be considered. Maybe after next year, maybe in two years. Just not now.
Fred Goldsmith deserves next season. Period.
I understand the cynics who are out there. They probably want Goldsmith out now, with a new coach brought in to try and revive the program.
But that's exactly what Goldsmith is trying to do. And we won't find out until next year if he is successful, when as many as nine seniors start on defense and veterans fill all of the offensive skill positions. Most importantly, these are all Goldsmith's players. He recruited and brought them in. There aren't any remnants of Barry Wilson's team; this is all Goldsmith's. He may have won using Wilson's talent four years ago; now it is obviously his own.
And if Duke isn't successful next year, then maybe you move on, but how are you ever going to have stability in a program if you don't have stability at the head coaching position?
Bring in a new head coach next year, and he's just going to start all over. Maybe five or six years from now that coach will be successful. But that was the idea back in 1994, and we're just about to find out if Goldsmith really can build a winner.
Goldsmith and Alleva both believe that this program is capable of stringing together winning seasons. Not that it's easy. Duke hasn't had three in a row since the early '60s.
The Blue Devils almost got the ball rolling this season. And if Goldsmith isn't back next year, you can quickly point to the losses against Vanderbilt and Maryland as the reason. Win those games and we're talking about a 6-5 record, a possible trip to the Motor City Bowl and a defense that improved from 90th to 47th in the country by allowing the fewest yards since 1981. Mere mention of a coaching dilemma for Alleva would be pointless.
Instead, Duke collapsed down the stretch and probably made this season a bigger disappointment than the last two, when the team won a combined two games. This year, as Goldsmith said all along, the Blue Devils finally had something to be playing for late in the year. They just didn't get it done.
We'll never know why Duke came out so flat in Nashville or lost its intensity after building up a two-touchdown lead against the Terrapins. Goldsmith himself accepts some of the blame.
But this season was supposed to be a steppingstone. We were looking at a five-year rebuilding program, not four. It was unfair to expect a team that hadn't won an ACC game in two years to suddenly move up from the basement to join the likes of Virginia and Georgia Tech.
Goldsmith all along has had this team pointed toward 1999. Duke should win next year.
More importantly, it's not just a one-shot deal. After this team won eight games in '94, the cupboard was left bare. Win seven or eight games next season and there will still be something left for the new millennium.
Remember, B.J. Hill's only a freshman, as are Ronnie Hamilton, Michael Hart, Todd DeLamielleure and a fast-improving Kyle Moore. Richmond Flowers still has two years left, as do Nate Krill and Troy Andrew. To top it off, D Bryant could very well be your starting quarterback for the next four seasons.
And that is the most important thing I came away with after sitting down with Goldsmith for 45 minutes yesterday. This team finally has depth. Duke's two-deep contains talent in both the starter and backup slots. Some positions, such as running back, even have three guys who could step in and play.
That's why it just doesn't make sense to me that there could be a coaching change now. Considering the poor facilities and lack of money in the program, Goldsmith has done as well as anyone could in recruiting the players who fill the roster.
If you fire him, what kind of message does that send to prospective coaches? Work hard to build the program and then be replaced before you can see the hard labor pay off?
As of today, Goldsmith is still Duke's head coach. He's ready to hit the road recruiting and return in March for an enormously important spring practice.
"I don't blame our fans for being frustrated," Goldsmith said yesterday. "Next year, it's going to change."
Goldsmith should unquestionably be the one to lead that change. Duke has had five different coaches and just four winning seasons in the last 17 years. Throwing in someone new might briefly increase excitement in Durham, but all that matters in the end is winning.
Fred Goldsmith deserves the chance to prove that three years of rebuilding have led to a winning team. Alleva, for now, would be better served turning his attention to the facilities that hinder Goldsmith's progress.
Otherwise, his first big decision as athletic director may be his worst.
Joel Israel is a Trinity senior and sports editor of The Chronicle.
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