Timing is everything in sports.
No matter how good or bad a team is, it always has a chance if it can catch the opposition at the right time.
And though I know I'm probably in the minority in saying this, I don't think the football team could be catching Florida State at a better time.
That's not to say Duke is going to hand the Seminoles their first two-game losing streak in seven years this Saturday; that will take a perfect gameplan, perfect execution and a lot of a luck. After all, Florida State's loss to N.C. State was the Seminoles' first to an unranked team since 1989, back when Steve Spurrier still roamed the sidelines at Wallace Wade.
But this Saturday's game comes at as good a time as it ever will. Naturally, after watching the Seminoles last weekend, the first instinctive reaction was to say, "Oh man, they're going to be mad as hell when they play Duke. It's not going to be pretty."
If a few factors didn't shape up as they did, I would probably agree. But consider the following:
- Being ticked-off isn't going to help Chris Weinke. Had Florida State's biggest deficiency against the Wolfpack been on defense, then the anger could help the players focus and beat up on an overmatched team. But the Seminoles held N.C. State's offense in check, with the exception of Torry Holt's long touchdown catch to seal the win.
Otherwise, Florida State can usually get away with surrendering 17-24 points, so long as it scores 50. The Seminoles' problem right now, though, is on offense. And anger isn't going to make Weinke any better. It's a question of how much ability he really has, and that is a question that Weinke, the first sophomore to start at FSU in 12 years, has yet to answer. He knows it and his teammates know it.
Duke's secondary has never looked as quick as it did against Northwestern. Lamar Grant bottled up D'Wayne Bates, and Darius Clark and Eric Jones were seemingly everywhere. Now the challenge increases with Peter Warrick and company, but one errant pass is all Duke needs for doubt to creep back into Weinke's head.
- Home-field advantage could work the other way. Stay with me on this one, because I know it doesn't seem like much of a disadvantage to play in front of 70,000 faithful fans. The issue is how faithful they're going to be. If the Seminoles' offense continues to struggle, are people who have seen their team finish in the top four in the country the past 11 years going to sit patiently in their seats?
Or would it not be easier for Florida State to play this game at mild-mannered Wallace Wade, where there would be much less pressure coming from the stands? There are many who believe it is much easier to straighten out problems on the road, where fans are cheering against you no matter what, than at home where normally loyal supporters can get restless in a hurry.
- This is the right time for Duke to travel down south. The players are feeling confident, as well they should, and still see much room to improve. This is probably the wrong week to be playing a lesser foe, someone whom the Blue Devils could be overconfident against and then subsequently stumble back down to earth in a hurry.
There is little chance of that in Tallahassee. If Duke gets its lunch handed to it, which certainly could be the case, the Blue Devils can say, "Well, that's Florida State, what can you do?" and move on. But if they're able to stay fairly close, maybe even really close, that's just added confidence heading into next week's game in Durham against Virginia.
Now, I know most people would probably say that Duke would be better off right now if Florida State had trampled the Wolfpack and then relaxed with the Blue Devils coming to town. And maybe that will turn out to be the case.
As the situation stands now, the Seminoles are not going to overlook anybody. They are focused on Duke and ready to let the country know that they still have a shot at the national title.
Yet maybe, just maybe, more doubt will seep into the FSU offense Saturday evening. Maybe the fans will turn impatient, and maybe Weinke will struggle like he did five days ago. And maybe Duke will continue to improve even more.
When you're playing Florida State, you roll the dice and take your chances. If this scenario plays out, and it is not wildly unrealistic, maybe come Sunday we'll all look back and say the timing of this game was just right.
Joel Israel is a Trinity senior and sports editor of The Chronicle.
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