Over the past few decades, the field hockey team has always used its games against North Carolina as a measuring stick for how close to the top it is.
The problem is, in each of the last 36 meetings, covering a span of 16 years, Duke (4-3, 1-0 in the Atlantic Coast Conference) has lost to the always highly-ranked Tar Heels (5-2, 0-1), who travel to the East Campus Turf Fields tonight for a 7 p.m. contest.
But this year the trends point toward a possible reversal in the Blue Devils' long streak of misery. No. 2 UNC is coming off a weekend during which it lost two games in a row for the first time in five years.
Virginia shut out the Tar Heels 2-0 last Friday, and UNC turned around the next day and was stopped by No. 1 Old Dominion, 5-4, in overtime.
Duke, meanwhile, gained a measure of confidence last Sunday when it held the same Old Dominion team scoreless in the second half. And in last season's ACC tournament, the Blue Devils actually led UNC 2-0 at the half before falling, 3-2. As a result, Duke hopes that this is finally the game to break through.
"UNC's an incredible, talented team," Duke coach Liz Tchou said. "They're very tactically and technically sound. But I think we're getting better, and our kids are confident that they can take UNC on with absolutely everything they have."
Of course, beating the Tar Heels won't be easy. Before its recent two-game slide, UNC won its first five games of the year, toppling such top-20 teams as Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State.
Furthermore, the Tar Heels return much of the firepower from last year's national championship squad. Goalie Jana Withrow is back, as are fellow senior All-Americans Kate Barber, Cindy Werley, Joy Driscoll and Abbi Keller.
"We know that they're not any weaker this year," junior Emily Ford said. "But we've just been progressing so much every year. We feel like we're due for a win."
Confidence is not something the Blue Devils have had much of against UNC in past years. Before last year's 3-2 loss, Duke had come no closer than three goals in its previous seven games versus the Tar Heels.
"In the past, there was a feeling of just trying to stay close," Tchou said. "I know now our kids feel that we're getting better and better every game."
Indeed, in the past week Duke has knocked off top-15 schools Temple and Wake Forest, in addition to its 4-1 loss to No. 1 Old Dominion.
Although the Blue Devils are unranked, they feel that they have moved beyond the point of just being competitive with everyone. After the ODU loss, Duke was not satisfied that it stayed close, but instead disappointed that it lost.
"I honestly think that we can beat anybody," sophomore goalkeeper Sarah Doherty said. "If we can hold together those periods of time where we play together and play so well, I definitely think we can win. I'm excited for this weekend and Carolina."
Immediately after tonight's game, Duke must turn its attention to Sunday, when it heads north for a 4 p.m. game at Richmond. The Blue Devils feel that they'll be able to move past UNC quickly and prepare for the Spiders.
"We have a day in between, so I don't think fatigue is going to be much of a factor," Tchou said. "But Richmond's very strong. We're going to come out against Richmond like any other team. We're not going to take them lightly at all. There have been so many upsets in the past week."
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