Following a regular season that exceeded expectations complete with big-time wins against tough teams like No. 10 N.C. State and No. 11 Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils are now headed to the 2024 ACC tournament. Held less than an hour from Durham in Greensboro Coliseum, Duke will likely be coming up against some of the top squads in the conference in rematches from the regular season as it heads into a stacked playoff bracket.
With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the prospective opponents that Duke could face throughout the tournament all the way through to the finals.
Second round
Since the squad from Durham has received a bye that will push it through day one of the competition Wednesday, the Blue Devils will play their first game Thursday at 5 p.m. There, Duke will face off against Georgia Tech, a group coming off a Wednesday afternoon win against Pittsburgh.
The Yellow Jackets, while maybe not the strongest group in the ACC, have been punchy at moments. Led by a versatile, lanky guard in sophomore Kara Dunn, Georgia Tech has the potential to push the envelope and could maybe end up winning a game or two in the tournament. That being said, the Blue Devils are still the far superior team, and the matchup was a blowout in the regular season. As long as Duke plays its brand of physical, fast-paced basketball, the second round should be an easy one.
Quarterfinals
In the span of just a day, the competition for the Blue Devils will make a significant jump. Assuming Duke can win a relatively straightforward game against its second-round team, the Blue Devils will be coming against No. 2-seed N.C. State. The Wolfpack, one of the stronger teams in the country, will be a tough matchup for Duke and are likely the favorites heading into the game. Led by a pair of first team All-ACC players in junior guards Aziaha James and Saniya Rivers, this team is a force to be reckoned with.
The dynamic play of the two lanky guards has been a big reason for this team's success in the regular season. The two combined average 28.5 points per game, along with 6.9 assists. Supported by a strong crew in the frontcourt, the Wolfpack have been able to beat some of the best teams in the nation. They have come out on top of big games against a powerhouse UConn team and a strong Colorado group.
That being said, this is a deceptively winnable game for Duke. The Blue Devils were blown out by N.C. State early in the season, but managed to win solidly at home. Duke beat the Wolfpack by an 11-point margin, setting the season series even at 1-1. If the two teams meet for a third time, it will come down to the guard play. If the Blue Devils can contain N.C. State’s backcourt talent and find ways to score, they will be able to put up a serious fight. If they let James and Rivers walk all over them, then it will be a long night in Greensboro.
This game would probably be the toughest one of the tournament for Duke, at least until the final. It remains to be seen how this squad handles the pressure, seeing as the majority of this team is yet to see postseason action.
Semi-finals
If the Blue Devils manage to pull out the win in the quarterfinals, the bracket opens up. The two most likely opponents are Syracuse and Florida State, two teams Duke has beaten in the regular season. That said, both have each also been ranked for at least part of the campaign, and are certainly not to be trifled with.
Let’s start with the Orange, a group that packs a serious scoring punch. Led by star point guard Dyaisha Fair, Syracuse has been a force to be reckoned with all season. Fair is one of the best scoring guards in the country, capable of willing her team to victory when she gets hot. Fair has averaged 22 points per game, good for 10th in the nation. She's supported by a strong personnel group, including fellow backcourt member Georgia Wooley, a strong playmaker averaging 3.2 assists per game.
But Duke did well to shut the Orange down in the regular season. The Blue Devils shut Fair down en route to a 58-45 victory. It remains to be seen if that was a fluke, or if Duke can pull it off again.
Now for Florida State. The Seminoles have generally had a good season, although their first matchup against Duke was a disappointing one for them. The Blue Devils came out on the right side of a 42-point battering, riding an 18-point performance from sophomore guard Taina Mair to victory.
Despite the big-time win the first time around, it should be noted that Florida State is usually a punchy squad. The Seminoles have beaten a Virginia Tech squad sitting atop the ACC, and a strong North Carolina team. Led by another excellent guard in junior Makayla Timpson, the Seminoles are a creative, tall team capable of stretching the floor and causing problems for opposing defenses. The trick to winning this one for Duke will, again, be containing a strong backcourt. The Blue Devils have proven themselves capable of locking down on defense against star guards, and will need to do it again if they come up against the Seminoles.
Championship
On the chance that the stars align and Duke manages a run all the way to the ACC final, it will almost certainly be against a very strong team. No. 1-seed Virginia Tech, along with No. 4-seed Notre Dame and No. 8-seed North Carolina are all looming on the other side of the bracket, and each poss.
The Hokies, even lacking star center and ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley to injury, sport one of the most decorated rosters in the conference. The Fighting Irish, similarly, have a strong crew led by a phenomenal freshman guard (and ACC Defensive Player of the Year) in Hannah Hidalgo. Hidalgo has posted 23.8 points per game this season, the third-beat mark in the country. The Tar Heels bring with them a stellar forward in Alyssa Ustby and an excellent point guard in Deja Kelly.
The reality is that any of these matchups would be another one to win. Coming off what will have been a gauntlet to even get to the championship game, it will be a testament to Duke's conditioning and preparation if the Blue Devils are able to rally for what will have to be another superhuman effort Sunday. The ACC is arguably the best conference in the sport and even the weaker squads are always capable of getting hot and stringing together an upset or two to cause chaos in the bracket. This is made even tougher by the fact that Duke has been up and down all season, and it remains to be seen how it will fare in the postseason. It is a punchy group, but also one that has seen its fair share of rocky moments.
Even if Duke cannot find a way to make a deep run in the conference, head coach Kara Lawson’s team can rest easy knowing that regardless, the Blue Devils will almost certainly find themselves playing in the national tournament. There, even stronger competition awaits.
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