After 30 hard-fought games filled with the jubilant highs of victory and the agonizing lows of defeat, No. 9 Duke’s 2023-2024 regular season concludes Saturday as the team welcomes No. 7 North Carolina at Cameron Indoor Stadium. With both the Blue Devils and Tar Heels ranked in the top 10 nationally and the ACC regular-season title on the line, the matchup promises to be the rivalry’s most momentous since the two teams met in the Final Four of the 2022 NCAA tournament.
Here are five things to keep in mind as these titanic rivals clash with millions watching around the country:
Turnovers, fouls and unnecessary mistakes
In this season’s first edition of the Tobacco Road rivalry, North Carolina pulled out a convincing 93-84 win. Yet an initial glance at the box score doesn’t fully capture how Duke lost the encounter; the Blue Devils shot more efficiently than the Tar Heels and only collected only one fewer rebound. However, whereas North Carolina distributed the basketball efficiently and avoided getting into foul trouble, turnovers and careless fouls plagued Duke head coach Jon Scheyer’s bunch.
The Blue Devils were repeatedly sloppy in possession, turning the ball over a horrendous 11 times. As a result, the Tar Heels earned many of their buckets on fast-breaks after steals, capitalizing on Duke’s out-of-position defense to earn 19 points off turnovers, compared to the Blue Devils’ seven. Where Scheyer’s men constantly found themselves grinding for every single bucket, North Carolina exploited Duke’s mistakes to score large sums of points on easy, often uncontested looks.
Another factor in Duke’s defeat was the disparity in free-throw attempts between the two teams; the Blue Devils only attempted 11 free throws while the Tar Heels earned 25 attempts from the line. Some Duke fans blamed inconsistent officiating for this disparity, but the Blue Devils simply committed too many unnecessary fouls while North Carolina remained disciplined.
For a team of Duke’s caliber and ambition, these types of mistakes in big-game situations are simply inexcusable. In Saturday's rematch, look for the Blue Devils to place an emphasis on taking care of the basketball and staying out of foul trouble. If the team succeeds in avoiding careless errors, it will be much better positioned to avenge the previous loss.
Proctor’s reemergence
Speaking of avoiding turnovers, sophomore guard Tyrese Proctor has been Duke's most efficient playmaker so far this season, averaging a team-high 3.8 assists per game while only committing an average of 1.4 turnovers. But for much of the season, the Sydney native has struggled to reach a similarly elite level at the other aspects of his game. Proctor’s struggles were especially apparent in the Blue Devils’ first encounter with the Tar Heels, where he amassed only two points on 1-of-6 shooting.
Recently, however, the projected 2024 NBA Draft pick has elevated his game to a new level. In Duke’s last five outings, Proctor has averaged 12 points per game on 50% shooting and 41.9% from three, each figure significantly higher than his season averages. With freshman guard Caleb Foster out with a foot injury, Proctor has reemerged as the team’s preeminent playmaker and one of its most important players.
“Tyrese can do so many things on the court,” Scheyer said in a Thursday press conference. “He can drive, he can play-make, he can really shoot. He’s as good of a competitor as we have.”
On his day, Proctor is perhaps the Blue Devils’ most talented player, and Duke will need the sophomore star to showcase that talent Saturday. With fellow guards Jared McCain and Jeremy Roach delivering consistently solid performances, Proctor’s continued improvement makes the Blue Devil backcourt an enormous challenge for any opponent.
Impact off the bench
Meanwhile, in Duke’s frontcourt, an interesting development has taken place since Foster’s injury, as Scheyer has turned to freshman forwards TJ Power and Sean Stewart for impact appearances off the bench. This bigger lineup has yielded great results for the Blue Devils, who have won by at least 15 points in each of their three outings since Foster was sidelined.
Stewart’s presence on the floor has been particularly impactful, as the Montverde Academy product has averaged nine points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks over his past three games, including a game-changing 12 point performance last time out against N.C. State. Having initially struggled to adjust to the pace and intensity of college basketball, Stewart finally seems comfortable playing at the next level, allowing him to fully capitalize on his remarkable athleticism and elite instincts. Whether slamming home jaw-dropping dunks on the fast-break or jumping out of the gym to block an opponent’s shot off the glass, the Windemere, Fla., native’s talents add an exciting dimension to Duke’s arsenal.
“Sean has done a terrific job. He gives us a great pop. He gives us great competitiveness when he’s on the floor,” Scheyer said. “It’s natural, as a freshman, to be worried about making a mistake … or getting adjusted to the speed of certain things. But when he’s at his best, he’s just throwing himself into competing, and everything else comes with that.”
Last time the Blue Devils faced the Tar Heels, Duke’s bench scored a combined six total points, as Stewart and center Ryan Young combined for just 12 minutes played, while Power did not see the floor at all. Compare that figure with the 17 points scored in 49 total minutes during the 79-64 victory against the Wolfpack, and it’s clear how important bench contributions are for the Blue Devils’ success. Scheyer has finally begun to trust his talented freshman forwards, and that trust may pay off in a massive way Saturday.
Duke’s defensive game plan
During Duke’s first encounter with the Tar Heels, Scheyer’s game plan seemed to revolve around containing North Carolina superstar RJ Davis, often by double-teaming the potential first-team All American. For the most part, the Blue Devils succeeded in limiting Davis’ production; the White Plains, N.Y., native scored only 17 points on an inefficient 5-of-14 shooting. However, Duke’s defensive focus on Davis gave North Carolina’s role players more opportunities to shine, especially forward Harrison Ingram, who dropped a remarkable 21 points on the night.
“They’re a handful,” Scheyer said of the Tar Heels. “You can’t just say you’re gonna take away one guy because they’ve all shown they can … go off at any moment. And so it’s one of those games [where] you have to be really solid [and] you have to guard all five players.”
Although Scheyer seems to have indicated that the Blue Devils will shy away from their previous defensive game plan, how much will Duke really change its approach Saturday? Will Scheyer’s men focus on stopping Davis again, forcing North Carolina’s role players to beat them, or will the Blue Devils play a more balanced defensive scheme, potentially allowing the likely ACC Player of the Year to run rampant in Cameron Indoor? Scheyer’s game plan may be the difference between a season-defining victory or another agonizing defeat.
The Pressure of the Moment
It’s always a momentous occasion whenever Duke and North Carolina face off, but the circumstances of this particular matchup make the game even more important than usual. A Blue Devil victory means the two teams would share the ACC regular-season title, while the Tar Heels would win it outright with a victory. An estimated 3.2 million viewers tuned into the teams’ last encounter in February, and it's safe to guess that, given these championship implications, even more will watch this time around. For some of these young student-athletes, the spotlight will be the brightest they’ve faced in their entire basketball careers. Emotions will run high, mistakes will be amplified, tensions between the two bitter rivals may even reach a boiling point.
For Duke to defeat its vaunted foes, the Blue Devils must not let the pressure get to them and simply play in the moment. Duke’s 2023-24 season has not gone exactly according to plan, with injuries and upsets slightly dampening the team’s preseason expectations. Yet the Blue Devils have persevered through each moment of adversity, putting themselves in a position not only to compete for the ACC titles, but to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. A victory Saturday against the Tar Heels would be instrumental in advancing both of these goals.
The time for excuses is over. The time to excel is now. With championships, tournament seeding, NBA draft-stocks and collegiate legacies on the line, Saturday’s game will be a pressure cooker — with more than just bragging rights at stake.
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