Duke suffered its biggest defeat of the Elko era against No. 4 Florida State Saturday night, leading at the end of three quarters but ultimately faltering late. The Blue Devils fell 38-20, and will look to redeem themselves in an afternoon game at No. 18 Louisville. Here are five things to keep in mind for Duke’s next ACC matchup.
Stopping the run
The Cardinal offense is an explosive one that is more than capable of ripping off huge amounts of yardage on a single play. That is largely due to the versatility of the Louisville attack, which utilizes all manner of different blocking and rushing schemes along with an impressive play-action game that sucks linebackers and defensive backs into the trenches and opens up the secondary for longer pass plays.
The personnel group that allows head coach Jeff Brohm to run such a creative scheme is led by junior running back Jawhar Jordan. Jordan is one of the quickest, most explosive backs in the ACC. He averages 7.4 yards per carry, and has put up eight touchdowns thus far this season. Jordan is quick, dynamic and hard to stop once he starts running downhill. Duke’s linebackers will need to be quick and perceptive to not only see through the smokescreen of a play-fake, but also to get in front of Jordan and make a tackle before he builds up enough momentum to take the ball for a long gain.
“I think [Jordan] is one of the more talented running backs in this league, if not the most talented,” said Duke head coach Mike Elko in a press conference this week. “Certainly the most explosive from a speed standpoint, in a making [defenders] miss standpoint that we've seen to this point.”
Adjust the attack
All year, the Blue Devils have enjoyed one of the stronger rushing attacks in the country. Duke averages 198.3 yards per game on the ground at a relatively efficient clip of 5.6 per carry. Unfortunately for the visiting squad, Louisville has been one of the best run defenses in the country this year. The Cardinals sit at 14th in the FBS in terms of yards allowed per game on the ground at just 97.1.
As such, there are a few options for Duke. One is to look at that number, and elect to (mostly) ignore it, to try to use what has been a good offensive line to create gaps in that run defense and force the ball up the middle anyway. It is entirely possible, as the Blue Devil rushing attack has been very strong this year. The other option is to adjust the game plan and switch to a more-pass heavy attack, playing away from the Cardinals’ strengths. Which one Elko goes with remains to be seen, but he is certainly aware of the challenges the run defense will present.
“Defensively, I think [the Cardinals] are number two in the league in stopping the run. They're giving up less than 100 yards a game rushing,” Elko said, “They're very physical upfront, they've got a really, really sound front four. Another team that will load the box and really make it difficult and challenging for you to run the football.”
Fresh legs
One advantage that the Cardinals will have coming into this game is in terms of rest. Louisville is coming off of a bye week, allowing the home squad to rest and recover. Duke, on the other hand, is playing the week after a gruelingly physical game on the road against the Seminoles. The balance in terms of rest will be heavily tipped in favor of the Cardinals, and the Blue Devils will need to adjust.
As a result of the rest and preparation difference, Duke should be ready to be slowed down or stopped on the first few drives. Louisville has had more time to prepare for the Blue Devil attack, and more time to rest. Hopefully for the squad from Durham, things will even out as the game goes on. After a few drives the Cardinals will be tired on defense and offenses will have made in-game adjustments to the scheme. As such, Duke will need to be patient on offense. Avoid frustration and with time, things will start to click.
“The beauty of it is [the Cardinals] have time that we don't have, and that's what the luxury of coming off of a bye week gives them,” said Elko. “They have extra time to look at us and look at them and kind of go through it all.”
Riley Leonard’s health
One big question mark coming into this game is starting quarterback and standout player Riley Leonard. Leonard left Saturday’s game against the Seminoles in the fourth quarter after appearing to tweak an already-shaky ankle. While he was walking around on the sideline and appeared ready to go back in, Elko elected to keep Leonard on the bench. Backup quarterback Henry Belin IV struggled to fill Leonard’s shoes, and Duke scored zero points in the second half as a result.
Leonard is a key part of the scheme, and Duke’s offensive efficiency on Saturday will likely hinge on his health. The most recent status update came from Elko, who said he was “day to day,” but it remains to be seen whether or not the star will play against Louisville.
A hostile environment
This will mark the second road game in a row for the Blue Devils, and it will be a tough one. Duke appeared to do fairly well in tuning out the noise from a raucous Florida State crowd. It will need to do a similar job against the Cardinals, focusing on the game at hand and not letting outside buzz get to the squad.
This team is at the point where it is drawing large crowds. Now, it needs to ignore them.
As Elko said, “That's what they've created. They've now created these games and these matchups that are in prime slots, that are on national television, that are drawing huge crowds.”
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