Many of the problems Donald Trump has focused on in his campaign are not fictitious. To claim so only further alienates a segment of the American population who already feels forgotten by our political system.Though the real estate tycoon identifies legitimate issues, his proposed solutions not only fail to deal with their targets; they also generate enormous collateral damage.
Recent research has shown that trade with China has had a negative impact on employment for low-skill Americans that is larger and more lasting than previously expected. Further, with unprecedented levels of global financial integration, one country’s currency devaluation does indeed have significant repercussions for others.
Unfortunately, Donald Trump’s rhetoric on trade is nonsensical at best. He talks about our trade deficits with China and Mexico as if they were gifts the United States is making to these foreign countries. He therefore wields them as leverage, threatening tariffs in the absence of compliance with certain demands. Of course, these tariffs would impose costs on China and Mexico, but the vulnerability is symmetric. These trade deficits arise due to the large amount of goods and services—valued by Americans—that these foreign countries can produce more cheaply and effectively. Imposing tariffs on these imports reverses the trend of globalization towards a greater quantity and quality of goods available to American consumers at lower prices.
But the costs of these tariffs are not limited to higher prices. Frédéric Bastiat, a 19th century liberal, quipped that “when goods are not allowed to cross borders, soldiers will.” The economic integration and spread of free trade over the course of the 20th century has helped inaugurate the most peaceful time in our history as the world has become interlinked through commerce. The European Union—where goods and labor move freely across country’s borders without tariffs or restrictions—was created in large part to bring peace to the continent responsible for starting both world wars. Latin Americans have been greatly enriched by free trade with the United States and the favorability with which they view their northern neighbor is highly linked to the per capita GDP in their countries. The interdependence of the American and Chinese economies has helped maintain a relatively stable relationship between the two powers.
Just as the United States has complained about China’s currency manipulation, many countries have grievances with the implications that the Fed’s monetary policy has for their capital flows and currency valuations. What needs to be done is not the make the international trading system less open, as Trump’s protectionist policies would do, but to make it increasingly rules-based by increasing the authority and legitimacy of multilateral organizations who can adjudicate these disputes such as the IMF and WTO.
Radical Islam—with its violent methods and expansionist goals—is a serious threat to national security, as well as to the international state system that must underlie any peaceful world order. Amongst other responses, Donald Trump has called for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. Such a policy, by offending all Muslims, would seriously undermine efforts to create a coalition with more moderate Arab nations, something that is necessary in order to address exigent regional problems. Further, it would reinforce Jihadist organizations’ narrative about the irreconcilable conflict between Western civilization and Islam, thereby aiding their recruiting efforts and enflaming their ideological fervor.
The support Trump has voiced for other techniques—the targeted killing of terrorists’ families and an increase in the use and the severity of interrogation methods such as waterboarding—would likely have similar effects.
The consequences of such proposals are not limited to setbacks in the War on Terror. If America wants to preserve its openness and tolerance, as well as lead the effort for the universal adoption of these liberal values (in the classical sense), it cannot afford to even contemplate these discriminatory policies. To do so would give the United States a label of hypocrisy that could haunt it for years to come.
Another issue Donald Trump has been very vocal about is the growing trend of political correctness. This phenomenon has indeed stifled productive and intellectual debate by precluding individuals from expressing controversial (and usually, conservative) views through the use of social pressure and other coercive measures. Related to this issue is the perceived liberal bias in mainstream media.
However, Mr. Trump’s approach to these problems is again reckless and ineffective. Trump encourages his supporters to physically abuse nonviolent protesters. He responds to Megyn Kelly and many others who have voiced substantive concerns about his ability to lead the country with off-topic and abrasive comments. In short, Trump is guilty of the same faults as the progressive radicals leading the political correctness movement, namely, the use of verbal and physical abuse against those who disagree with him rather than constructive dialogue.
Even more frightening is Trump’s proposal to revise the country’s libel laws so that he can sue those who publish “false” claims about him. Trump’s exploitation of fear—in this case the concerns many have about the liberal media being untruthful and manipulative—to increase his power at the expense of Constitutional authority is indicative of a troubling autocratic inclination.
America’s greatness derives from its success in securing the benefits of democracy while avoiding many of its greatest dangers. For most of its history, enlightened leaders—capable of grasping and communicating complicated ideas to the people—have succeeded over populists who prey on the peoples’ fears and intellectual frailties. When these populists have managed to influence the policymaking process (Smoot-Harley, unit banking), the consequences have been disastrous. To elect one to the highest office in the country is a mistake we simply cannot afford to make.
Julian Keeley is a Trinity junior. His column runs on alternate Tuesdays.
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