Despite the snow and precipitation in Durham earlier in the week, this year’s first installment of the Tobacco Road rivalry will go on as scheduled—unlike last season, when the game was postponed for the first time in history—with tip-off set for 9 p.m. Wednesday at Cameron Indoor Stadium. While No. 4 Duke enters the contest riding a five-game winning streak and will be searching for its sixth victory against a ranked opponent this season, the No. 15 Tar Heels limp into Durham having lost three of their last four games, including a double-digit defeat to unranked Pittsburgh Saturday. Here are three keys to the game as the Blue Devils look to pick up another victory against their in-state rival:
Crash the boards
This is a point of emphasis for Duke in every game, but it will be especially crucial against a North Carolina squad that is relentless on the glass and ranks second in the nation with 42.3 boards per game. The Tar Heels crash the offensive glass to the tune of 15.13 rebounds per contest—good for seventh in the country—and derive a lot of their offensive production from being able to convert off their own misses.
The two biggest bodies the Blue Devils will have to deal with are forwards Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks, both of whom are 6-foot-9 and average more than 12 points and seven boards per game. Despite slimming down significantly from last year, Meeks still has a big frame to throw around down low and could be a challenge for Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor in the post. Johnson, by contrast, has added 40 pounds to his frame since arriving in Chapel Hill two years ago so that he can compete with other big men in the paint.
Throw in 6-foot-8 swingman Justin Jackson, and North Carolina has three very lengthy starters in its lineup that the Blue Devils will have to pay attention to on the glass.
Duke is no slouch in the rebounding department itself—placing in the top 40 in the country—but it will need a high level of effort in boxing out and grabbing rebounds try and win that department.
Win the backcourt battle
As well as Duke’s starting guard combination of Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook has played lately, they may still have their hands full Wednesday night against North Carolina’s Marcus Paige. Paige earned Second-Team All American honors following his sophomore season a year ago and garnered the most votes on this year’s preseason All-American team, and his performance so far this year has merited those accolades. The junior is shooting at better than a 40 percent clip from 3-point range in conference play and leads the Tar Heels with a shade less than 14 points per game. Paige is more than capable of taking control of a game with his perimeter shooting and dribble penetration, and has hit quite a few big shots during his three years with North Carolina.
The Tar Heels are a great passing team and rank first in the country in assists, dishing out 17.6 assists per game. Paige and fellow junior J.P. Tokoto both average better than four dimes per contest, feeding a balanced offense with all five starters scoring more than eight points every night. All five Blue Devils on the floor will have to play tight defense every possession, but everything starts with Paige for North Carolina. If Cook can continue to play apply intense ball-pressure and disrupt Paige’s rhythm—like he did with Jerian Grant a few weeks ago in Duke’s dismantling of then-No. 10 Notre Dame—then he will have negated the Tar Heels’ best offensive weapon and greatly diminished their chances of stealing a win in Cameron.
Maintain composure
Even though Duke’s three starting freshmen have played like seasoned veterans for most of the season, the rivalry with North Carolina is a whole different animal—even without Dick Vitale calling the game for the first time in recent memory. The Tobacco Road rivalry brings with it an entirely different level of intensity, and the Cameron Crazies will make it feel like the roof Cameron Indoor is about to explode over the players’ heads.
The Blue Devils are extremely battle-tested and have passed just about every test thus far—colossal clashes with Wisconsin, Louisville and Virginia, to name a few—but the Tar Heels have their backs against the wall at this point and are sure to come out like they have nothing to lose. If things don’t go smoothly early on, look for Duke’s two captains—upperclassmen Cook and Jefferson—to try and steady the ship as the freshmen trio of Okafor, Jones and Justise Winslow adjust to their first taste of this storied rivalry.
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