After a turbulent week, No. 4 Duke will look to bounce back from its third conference loss at No. 8 Notre Dame Wednesday in a prime-time showdown at No. 2 Virginia Saturday at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va. Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. Three keys to the Blue Devils overcoming the recent dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon and knocking the Cavaliers from the ranks of the unbeaten:
Find a way to stay fresh
Duke cannot afford for Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook to fatigue down the stretch like they did Wednesday as the Blue Devils blew a 10-point lead with 10:58 left by only scoring two baskets the rest of the way. Jones and Cook—who played 38 and 40 minutes, respectively— were unable to finish strong after expending a lot of energy to get Duke its 10-point lead. A similar narrative Saturday could mean trouble for Duke facing a team that goes 10 deep and is known for wearing teams down during the course of a 40-minute battle in which they control the tempo.
Because of the dismissal of junior guard Rasheed Sulaimon, the Blue Devils now have just eight scholarship players on their roster, one of whom has played just 17 minutes in ACC games—freshman Grayson Allen. If Allen and Matt Jones are not somewhat effective on both ends for decent stretches, Jones and Cook will likely be forced to play almost the entire game against bigger, more physical Virginia guards. Up front, Duke needs to find a way to keep Jahlil Okafor fresh by utilizing Amile Jefferson, Justise Winslow and Marshall Plumlee. The way to keep players fresh is clear—the question is whether or not the Blue Devils can find ways to score against a team that allows just 49.2 points without their stars.
Take advantage of attention given to Okafor
Throughout the season, it has been to difficult to predict how opponents choose to defend Okafor. But regardless of whether or not the nation's top scoring defense plays him one-on-one with Mike Tobey, Anthony Gill or Darion Adkins, or brings the double team, what happens after the center catches the ball could determine the outcome of Saturday's game. As they did late in the game Wednesday, the Blue Devils often get stagnant after Okafor touches the ball and fail to relocate for open 3-pointers or make timely cuts to the basket. A similar recipe likely won't work against a team known for making entry passes tough and shutting down the paint.
However, if Duke can handle Virginia's length on the perimeter, the Blue Devils should be able to get open looks and free throw attempts more frequently than most teams the Cavaliers play. Okafor has shown his ability to dominate single coverage and find open teammates out of double teams, so if Duke can consistently execute at the level it did during its season-best performance Dec. 3 at then-No. 2 Wisconsin, it should have a shot to pull the upset. But if the inconsistency from the free throw line and stretches of stagnant offense after Okafor touches the ball continue, it is hard to see how the Blue Devils create enough offense to avoid falling to 4-4 in the ACC.
Speed up the game by pushing the ball, forcing turnovers
The Cavaliers' balanced offensive attack averages 1.14 points per possession—the ninth-most in the nation—and shoots 47.3 percent from the field, so despite their slower tempo, head coach Tony Bennett's squad is capable of taking advantage of defensive miscues. Wings Malcolm Brogdon and Justin Anderson—6-foot-5 and 6-foot-6, respectively—lead the Virginia's offensive attack that relies on player movement by frequently creating late in the shot clock after methodical possessions.
Because the Cavalier defense is fueled by the offense setting the pace of the game, Duke's best strategy to pull the upset is likely to speed Virginia up by forcing turnovers and pushing the ball to use its athleticism against a defense that is not set. If the Blue Devils can establish a quicker tempo early and start fast, the Cavaliers could be forced to adjust their game plan against one of the few teams with the talent to consistently score against their defense.
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