New kid, old threats

The pariah state of North Korea has been on the minds of many international observers for the last couple weeks. Kim Jong Un’s increased belligerency and threats have become more and more difficult to ignore. The North Korean Central News Agency has threatened “an all-out [nuclear] war” and has warned South Korea that the peninsula is entering a state of conflict. The New York Times recently reported, “North Korea warned foreigners on Tuesday that they might want to leave South Korea because the peninsula was on the brink of nuclear war.” On April 9, former Vice President Dick Cheney warned House Republicans, “We’re in deep doo doo” over North Korea. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel stated that North Korea is “skating very close to a dangerous line.” Defense officials, according to NBC, are “‘highly confident’ that North Korea is planning the imminent launch of a medium-range missile.” Tensions seem to be at an all-time high, and the threat of armed conflict seems very likely, if not imminent. In response to these threats America has moved some its missile defense systems toward the West Coast, and Japan has deployed similar units in Tokyo. As dangerous as this situation seems, we have been here before with North Korea and likely will be again before this decrepit state breathes its last threat.

The regime in Pyongyang has a storied tradition of instigating conflict with South Korea. On March 28, 2008, North Korea tested a series of short-range missiles and threatened the stability of international relations. In July 2003, North Korea fired a machine gun at a South Korean guard post, prompting increased tensions on both sides of the DMZ. On June 29, 2002, North Korean patrol boats sunk a South Korean frigate, triggering worldwide alarm. In July 2007, North Korea promised to shut down their nuclear reactors, only to renounce that commitment and kick out the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors in 2009. In March 2010, North Korea likely sunk a South Korean warship with a torpedo. Going back even further in time, North Korea sanctioned a commando raid into Seoul aimed at killing the South Korean president in 1968. The list goes on and on with examples of the warmongering and seemingly irrational behavior of this totalitarian regime. In fact, the Wilson Center’s “International History Declassified” archive has over 72 documents in the collection titled “North Korean Military Adventurism.” To say the least, North Korea has a history of erratic behavior. This latest spasm of rhetoric shouldn’t cause alarm. The peninsula has been in a constant state of conflict since the end of the Korean War. The question, then, is why North Korea continually subscribes to this pattern of hostile and frankly uncomfortable behavior.

The absolute control of this police state is horrifying and helps to explain the country’s behavior in recent weeks. Refugees and laborers who escape the clutches of this backwards country have harrowing tales of the lives they used to live. This system is clearly only kept together by force. Threatening the West creates an external adversary that allows Kim Jong Un to divert attention from his horrid domestic policies. This international blustering is nothing but a tactic, and not a particularly original one at that. Kim Jong Un’s father, Kim Jong Il, previously used this tactic to solicit humanitarian aid and supplies from the international community. It would not be surprising to see his son attempt such a move in the near future. North Korea is in dire economic straits. Aid from the West is necessary to keep the regime from collapsing.

Thankfully, The New York Times reports that White House officials have “settled on a strategy of refusing to make concessions to the North.” This is a good policy and one that can hopefully break the cycle of provocation that North Korea has traditionally relied upon. Once Kim Jong Un realizes that scaring the world into providing humanitarian aid will not work, then maybe he will move toward a more constructive form of engagement. Considering the regime’s past history, this seems highly unlikely—but anything is better than appeasing this dysfunctional, bellicose nation. The rhetoric from Pyongyang might become even more hostile in the days to come, but it is highly unlikely that it will be backed up by action.

Colin Scott is a Trinity junior. His column runs every other Monday.