When Chelsea Gray fell to the court on February 17 against Wake Forest at Cameron Indoor Stadium, the crowd quickly fell silent as the talented guard writhed in pain. The crowd was not simply silent out of respect but because they realized that without Gray, the rest of the season would be far more difficult for the Blue Devils.
Although this squad has proven since losing Gray that it has the talent and experience to win the big games against ACC competition, Duke still has yet to show that it can be considered one of the country’s elite programs even with a healthy Gray. For this reason the Blue Devils will not break into the Final Four this March.
In Duke’s lone game against a fellow top-five nationally ranked team, it fell to Connecticut by 30 points. The Blue Devils were able to keep up with the Huskies intensity on both ends of the floor during the first half, but they fell apart against the fiery Connecticut squad in the second period.
Duke cannot expect to make the Final Four without facing Notre Dame, the No. 1 seed in its region—a team that beat Connecticut three times this year.
Read more about Duke women's basketball in the 2013 NCAA tournament
Duke failed to compete with the Huskies for a full 40 minutes, and now they’ll likely have to beat an even better team while playing without their vocal leader, Gray. Although the guard struggled in her 31 minutes against Connecticut, racking up just two points and four assists, her recent replacement, freshman Alexis Jones, struggled in the second half as well.
Gray, one of 15 finalists for the John R. Wooden Award, given to the nation’s best player, has an on-court presence that Jones may struggle to replicate. One of the best passers in the nation, Gray led the team with 5.4 assists per game and was named to the All-ACC Defensive Team after leading the conference with 3.6 steals per game. Before injuring her knee, Gray also proved her ability to carry Duke to victory in close games in a home victory against Maryland. She netted 28 points, hitting 13 of 14 free throw attempts and carried the stagnant Blue Devil offense past a Terrapin squad eager for an upset.
And even if Jones can match Gray’s stat line, the latter’s strongest attributes are her leadership on the court and her ability to be head coach Joanne P. McCallie’s voice on the court.
Thus far, Jones has shown flashes of being able to match what Gray brought to the Blue Devils, but, as for any freshman, she has yet to prove it consistently. She lacks the experience of playing in an NCAA Tournament setting in which every game counts. Against Miami shortly after Gray’s injury, the Blue Devils were defeated in a contest that they should have won, the type of loss that would send Duke home early in March.
Without Gray as the focal point on the court and in the locker room for her teammates, it is hard to imagine that the Blue Devils will be able to sustain a high level of play over the four games it needs to win to reach the Final Four.
One of the strongest concerns for both the players and coaching staff has been the fact that they have had to change the usual lineup by incorporating players like Richa Jackson and Chloe Wells increasingly in the game plan. Duke has become a team experimenting with its players, one stuck back in December trying to figure out its identity. With Gray, the Blue Devils were both an efficient shooting team and a strong set of post players as she mediated the conflict between each playing style.
Without Gray to facilitate the offensive flow and set the tone defensively, however, it seems that Duke’s prospects for reaching the Final Four are bleak at best. Perhaps the most pertinent question remaining is whether the Blue Devils have the ability to play their way into an Elite Eight matchup. And, without Gray leading the charge, a Final Four run is certainly not in the cards.
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