Good morning! Hopefully you were already aware, but today is Election Day. 435 House elections, 33 Senate elections, and 1 Presidential election will be taking place today. If you’re like me, the suspense of the election is simply too much to handle and you are forced to read endlessly through political articles when you should be taking notes in class. I want to make that endless political reading easier by giving you an Election Day News Dump. Everything you need to know about the election on the day of will be right here.
Presidential Election Polling Aggregators and Predictors
Nate Silver: Obama 50.9 percent – 48.3 percent Romney (Obama with 91.6 percent chance of winning)
Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 309 – 229 Romney
Drew Linzer: Obama 326 – 212 Romney
Intrade: 69.1 percent chance of Obama winning
TPM Electoral Tally: Obama 290, Romney 191, Toss Ups 57
RCP Electoral Tally: Obama 201, Romney 191, Toss Ups 146
Huffington Post Electoral Tally: Obama 277, Romney 191, Toss Ups 70
TPM General Election Average: Obama 48.9 percent – 47.9 percent Romney
RCP General Election Average: Obama 48.8 percent – 48.1 percent Romney
Huffington Post General Election Average: Obama 48.1 percent – 46.7 percent Romney
Congressional Election Polling Aggregators and Predictors
TPM Senate Projection: 51 D, 44 R, 5 Toss-Ups
RCP Senate Projection: 49 D, 44 R, 7 Toss-Ups
Huffington Post Senate Projection: 51 D (including Angus King in Maine), 45 R, 4 Toss-Ups
RCP House Projection: 224 R, 178 D, 33 Toss-Ups
Huffington Post House Projection: 232 R, 186 D, 17 Toss-Ups
TPM Generic Congressional Ballot: D 46.9 percent – 46.5 percent R
RCP Generic Congressional Ballot: D 46.2 percent – 46.0 percent R
Huffington Post Generic Congressional Ballot: R 46.1 percent – 45.8 percent D
Other Articles and Opinion
State by State, Battle for Presidency Goes to Voters – Jim Rutenburg & Jeff Zeleny in The New York Times
Five Things to Watch on Election Night – Gerald Seib in The Wall Street Journal
The Best (And Worst) Of The 2012 Campaign - Benjy Sarlin & Evan McMorris-Santoro in Talking Points Memo
Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds - Nate Silver in The New York Times
My election prediction: The polls will be right and Obama will win with 290 electoral votes – Ezra Klein in The Washington Post
Monday Morning - Peggy Noonan in The Wall Street Journal
What We Already Know - Thomas B. Edsall in The New York Times
Why 2012 turned small - John F. Harris & Jonathan Martin in Politico
Why Romney Will Win – Fred Barnes in The Weekly Standard
Voters set to deliver verdict after grueling presidential campaign - Justin Sink & Amie Parnes in The Hill
A Mitt Romney win would merely reward Republicans for bad behavior – Gary Younge in The Guardian
Why Obama doesn’t deserve to win – Margaret Wente in The Globe and Mail
Polls Suggest Undecided Won't Help Romney (If They Show Up) - Benjy Sarlin in Talking Points Memo
The Obama landslide scenario - Steve Kornacki in Salon
Turnout Turnout Turnout - Michael Tomasky in The Daily Beast
Pundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread – Brad Plumer in The Washington Post
Return of the Independents – Josh Jordan in The National Review
Republicans Still Grumble About Romney As Campaign Winds Down - Evan McMorris-Santoro in Talking Points Memo
9 takeaways from the 2012 election - Maggie Haberman in Politico
The 2012 Election in Numbers: Monday, Nov. 5 – Dylan Matthews in The Washington Post.
President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney fight to the finish – Lynn Sweet in The Chicago Sun-Times
First-ever tie in Dixville Notch's mignight vote - Justin Sink in The Hill
From The Chronicle
Politics Roundup: 2012 Presidential Election Preview
Politics Roundup: 2012 Senate Elections Preview
Duke students weigh in as Election Day arrives
No vote, no problem: Duke international students find voice in 2012 race
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