Politics Roundup: 2012 Senate Elections Preview

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Currently, there are 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 independents in the United States Senate. The two independents caucus with the Democrats, which gives the Democrats a 53-47 cushion going into tomorrow elections. 33 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs, but who takes control of the Senate will fall on only a few races.

First, let me list the 23 Senate races that are all but decided:

17 Solid Democratic Seats:

California: Feinstein defeats Emken

Connecticut: Murphy defeats McMahon

Delaware: Carper defeats Wade

Florida: Nelson defeats Mack

Minnesota: Klobuchar defeats Bills

Missouri: McCaskill defeats Akin

New Jersey: Menendez defeats Kyrillos

New Mexico: Neinrich defeats Wilson

New York: Gillibrand defeats Long

Rhode Island: Whitehouse defeats Hinckley

Vermont: Sanders (Independent who will caucus with Democrats) defeats MacGovern

Washington: Cantwell defeats Baumgartner

West Virginia: Manchin defeats Raese

6 Solid Republican Seats:

Mississippi: Wicker defeats Gore

Nebraska: Fischer defeats Kerrey

Tennessee: Corker defeats Clayton

Texas: Cruz defeats Sadler

Utah: Hatch defeats Howell

Wyoming: Barrasso defeats Chesnut

For these races, the polling has consistently shown a 5-point or more advantage for the favorite or in the case a little or no polling, the state has a strict history of voting with one party of the other. These races aren’t technically over but any upsets would be a huge surprise and most likely reveal a systematic flaw or bias in the way that pollsters poll that state, so it is unlikely.

 

This leaves 10 races that will decide control of the Senate and here they are (listed in order of how likely I think it is that a Democrat win the seat):

Ohio: The Buckeye State has been the single most-talked-about state in the presidential campaign and in turn, the Senate campaign has been somewhat overlooked. When the race was just getting under way earlier this year, it was considered a big Republican target as Republican candidate Josh Mandel seemed to have a lot of big money at his back. After a brutal and bitterly-personal campaign, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown appears to still have a healthy lead. In what may have been the last nail in the coffin, the Cleveland Jewish News published an open letter written by Mandel’s cousins, in which they attack the candidate for his views on gay marriage. Brown should comfortably defeat Mandel, as well as almost certainly do better than Obama in the Buckeye State.

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania is historically a swing state, which is why earlier this year most people were putting this race on their lists of races. Pennsylvania has proven to be tougher terrain for Republicans than what was first thought, as both Republican Senate candidate Tom Smith, as well as Presidential candidate Mitt Romney can attest to. This race was always expected to get closer as the campaigns started moving but it never did. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Caser, Jr. should cruise to a comfortable victory over Smith.

Massachusetts: In what was probably the most nationally-covered Senate race, Democrat Elizabeth Warren has pulled out to a small lead in the last few weeks. Incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown has had an interesting couple years in politics. First, in a special election in 2010, he was elected to replace liberal idol Ted Kennedy in a typically-blue state. Then, after a couple years in office, he somehow comes out of that situation with a relatively good image. Unfortunately for him, none of that seems to matter as he is facing arguably the strongest Democrat Senatorial candidate in the country. Warren should win closely but comfortably over Brown.

Virginia: This race was so close for so long. It wasn’t until mid-September that we saw Democrat Tim Kaine start to put some space between Republican George Allen and himself. Kaine has had a rather steady few point advantage in the polls over the last couple of weeks. A Public Policy Polling (D) poll released yesterday showed Kaine with a 6-point advantage, which is part of the reason this race is show high on this list. Allen isn’t dead yet, but it certainly looks like Kaine will be celebrating tomorrow night.

Indiana: When Republicans look back at the 2012 election and wonder why they were only able to acquire 47 or 48 Senate seat, they are going to look at this race and hit their heads. Republican Senator Richard Lugar currently holds this seat and is the longest-standing Republican member of the Senate. Due to some of his more moderate views, he lost his primary to Tea Party favorite Richard Mourdock, turning what was a solidly Republican seat into a Democratic target. Mourdock has stayed within striking distance of Donnelly but his recent comments on rape and abortion were not helpful. Polls over the last week or so have shown a slight edge for Democrat Joe Donnelly but not by much.

Wisconsin: The race between Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Tommy Thompson has stayed rather parallel to the presidential race. Baldwin saw a pretty significant bump after the flubbed Republican Convention and Romney’s 47% and Libya comments. Since then, Thompson has slowly grinded away at Baldwin’s lead and it is now it is a pure toss-up. I am inclined to give Baldwin a slight advantage heading into tomorrow since she stills has a slight lead in polls despite a couple of recent polls coming Republican pollsters. That being said, this race is still too close to call.

Montana: Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester is running against Republican Denny Rehberg in this Montana race. Until the last couple weeks, polling has been sparse so it is hard to say what trajectory this race has taking. Looking at recent polling, it looks like Tester probably has a point or two lead heading into tomorrow but it’s hard to say.

North Dakota: Democratic Senator Kent Conrad in the long-time holder of this Senate, but earlier this year he decided he would retire instead of running for Senate. Republicans welcomed the news of Conrad’s retirement as he was the only thing standing between them and another Senator in North Dakota or so they thought. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has run an extremely successful campaign and is in a virtual tie with Republican Rick Berg, though polling in this race has been less than most other close races. In the end, Berg probably has a slight advantage given that North Dakota is a red state but Heitkamp definitely has a shot.

Nevada: This race has never really been super close but it has also never been out of reach for either candidate. Republican Dean Heller has held a pretty consistent lead over Democrat Shelley Berkley. Most recent polls show Heller holding that lead through Election Day but a few polls have shown some movement to Berkley over the last couple weeks. Even if the movement is correct, it might still be to late for Berkley. Heller should defeat her comfortably.

Arizona: The lack of unbiased, unaffiliated polling in this race makes it difficult to see where the candidates have come from. The few polls that do exist give mixed signals as to who is leading and by what margin. Republican Jeff Flake appears to have a comfortable lead over Richard Carmona but the polling data is not totally convincing and the political landscape of Arizona is changing so fast that polling could be unreliable. Flake should win this easily but consider this race my wild card in that I feel like the result could be surprising.

These ten races are the races that will decide the composure of the Senate. Based on what I've written in this article, I think you’re looking at a Senate with 53 Democrats (including independents who caucus with them) and 47 Republicans, which would be no change. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the split was anywhere from 51D-49R to 55D-45R. Though Republicans had their hopes high on controlling both chambers of Congress earlier this year, it seems that it wasn’t meant to be.