New leadership in China—a once-a-decade occurrence—comes at a critical time for the nation both within and outside of its borders, said William Kirby, T. M. Chang professor of China studies at Harvard University and Duke’s senior adviser on China.
A panel—comprised of Kirby; James Holmes, associate professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College; and Bai Gao, professor of sociology—previewed the potential changes of the incoming Chinese government and analyzed its past international policies Wednesday night. The event was hosted by the Duke International Relations Association and the Duke East Asian Nexus.
After months of secretive bargaining and much speculation, the seven members of the committee who sit atop China’s political system walked out onto stage in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing Thursday Nov. 15. The new committee members were led by Vice President Xi Jinping, who will take the reins as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party from President Hu Jintao, who will remain as president until March 2013.
“The Chinese government will transition from the fifth generation of leaders to the sixth [Thursday],” Kirby said. “China, I am confident, will do amazingly well for itself in the 21st century.”
The panel began by addressing the immediate concerns that will affect the government following the announcement of the new leaders.
“The greatest challenges that they will have are the same in the short and long term. In some areas, life in China is going well, but not politically,” Kirby said. “How does the Chinese political system enter the twenty-first century when the rest of the country is already booming in the twenty-first century?”
Holmes noted concern for the overreaching goals that the Chinese government is aiming to fulfill. In the short term, China has created vast expectations for itself.
“Keeping everything in balance is like trying to hold a ball between three magnets,” he added. “The new leadership must now meet these expectations or try to manage them.”
Holmes referenced his personal military background as reason to be concerned that China appears to be prepared to pay “any price” to follow through on its commitments.
He added that China’s military power poses a threat to the United States and its allies no matter the state of its government and economy.
But Gao disagreed with Holmes’ fear of the potential of China.
“Americans should have more to fear than fear itself,” Gao said, referencing the famous words of Franklin D. Roosevelt. “Fear is a negative factor in the international political system.”
Kirby noted that weaknesses in China’s political system may pose more difficulties to the United States.
“It is a region of peace accompanied by prosperity with incredible insecurity at the heart of the regime,” Kirby said.
The biggest challenge in American relationship with China is learning to manage a nation that is “strong but not confident,” Kirby added.
All three panelists warned against categorizing the actions of the Chinese government as a reflection of its people.
“There are many different voices claiming for influence on policies in Bejing for any given thing,” Holmes said. “Cultural differences matter, though I believe that they only matter at the margins.”
Kirby said the diversity of the population makes the nation “an empire as much as it is a country.” He added that in the next 10 years, the world’s top university could likely be in China.
Students studying abroad in China or planning to study at Duke’s new campus in China, Duke Kunshan University, however, do not need to worry about negative influences of the Chinese government, Kirby added.
“The Chinese people are taking things into their own hands,” he said. “They can see other political models and I think their position is becoming more and more one of activism.”
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