Gingrich Takes South Carolina
After two impressive debate performances last week, Newt Gingrich found himself over 12 percent above Mitt Romney after the votes were counted this past Saturday in the South Carolina GOP primary. Gingrich garnered just over 40 percent of the vote while Romney took just under 28 percent. Following Romney, Rick Santorum took 17 percent and Ron Paul took 13 percent of the vote.
Gingrich’s win comes as a surprise since Romney looked to have the nomination locked down after taking both Iowa—the Iowa results have since been changed as uncounted votes showed that Santorum truly won the state—and New Hampshire, the first two states to hold primaries. Polls published after Romney’s New Hampshire win, a week before the South Carolina primary, showed Romney with a comfortable lead in the Palmetto State.
Gingrich’s surprise win stems from Gingrich’s performances in the two debates in the week leading up to the election. Gingrich debated like a candidate with nothing to lose, attacking everyone from Romney to the debate moderator for asking him personal questions. Gingrich’s outlandish debate performances won him South Carolina and helped him cement his position in the race as the anti-establishment, anti-Mitt Romney candidate.
Republican Primary Race Moves to Florida
Florida, the fourth state to hold its GOP primary race, will have their election day next Tuesday, Jan. 31. In almost every poll published since the beginning of January, Romney has held a double-digit leads over Newt Gingrich. Having said that, Newt’s momentum from winning South Carolina will almost certainly carry over to the Sunshine State.
Most pollsters had Gingrich with leads over 20 percent during his mid-December surge so it is clear that Gingrich has the capacity to take Florida. The question is whether or not Gingrich has the resources and time to turn it around.
Gingrich has a couple factors going against. First, Florida is a big state and big states generally favor candidates with more money and better organized campaigns. Romney’s campaign is clearly better organized and funded.
Second, early voting is very popular in Florida. Many voters have already cast their ballots in Florida and those votes would not be affected by a late Gingrich surge. Some analysts would argue, though, that early voters are generally the voters that have their minds set and wouldn’t be affected by a late candidate surge.
Though Gingrich faces hurdles, Florida is by all means still up for grabs. Many people still see Romney as the inevitable nominee, but a Gingrich win in Florida could shake up the political establishments view of this race.
Late Update: The first Florida poll since the SC primary just came out and it has Gingrich up 9.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.