Why not us?
That’s the question that should be posted on every bulletin board and every wall of Duke’s locker room. It should be head coach Joanne P. McCallie’s mantra, permanently branded into the minds of her players. The Blue Devils should believe, and rightfully so, that they have what it takes to make the Final Four come April.
Duke will likely be given a No. 2 seed when the tournament bracket is released in two weeks, setting up a potential Elite Eight matchup against one of the top four teams in the country: Connecticut, Stanford, Nebraska or Tennessee.
True, Geno Auriemma coaches what is far and away the best team in women’s basketball (possibly in its history), winners of 69 straight games, including a dominating 33-point victory over the Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Huskies appear destined to come away with another NCAA title, their fifth in 10 years, leaving the rest of the nation clamoring for second place.
If Duke gets stuck in Connecticut’s bracket come Selection Monday, it would be next to impossible to envision the Blue Devils sliding their way into San Antonio.
Stanford is the obvious choice to face Connecticut in the championship game. Its only loss came at the hands of the Huskies before Christmas, 80-68, arguably Connecticut’s toughest game of the year. The Cardinal have also demolished the Pac-10 to the tune of an average margin of victory of over 24 points per game.
Yet Stanford has not played a top-tier foe—conference or nonconference—on the road all season, not counting Connecticut.
The Pac-10 has no teams currently ranked in the top 25, and the Cardinal’s last—and best—nonconference road win was against unranked Fresno State before New Year’s.
True, the Cardinal used a big first-half run to earn a 71-55 victory over the Blue Devils in Palo Alto, but the game came on the heels of a nine-day layoff for Duke’s exams. Stanford was able to ride the Blue Devils’ cold shooting after the layoff in the first half, but Duke matched the Cardinal in the second period. That loss can be explained in many different ways, but two stand out.
First, the Blue Devils shot just 28 percent from the field, well below the team’s average of 42 percent. Second, on a day in Maples Pavilion that celebrated the Stanford football program, the home court advantage was enormous—an edge that cannot be ignored considering that the top four teams have yet to lose a game on their home floors. However, if all else stays even, the Cardinal will likely wind up in a different region than the Blue Devils; as a result, No. 3 Nebraska or No. 4 Tennessee look to be Duke’s largest obstacles on the road to the Final Four.
On first glance, the Cornhuskers are the most intimidating of the two. Standing undefeated at 27-0, with wins over No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 15 Texas A&M (a team that pounded Duke Nov. 15, 95-77), No. 18 Texas and No. 20 Oklahoma State, Nebraska is led in scoring by two senior forwards: Kelsey Griffin and Cory Montgomery.
However, the Blue Devils’ greatest strength this season has been rebounding and using size inside to own the paint. The team has a positive-9.7 rebounding margin, better than Nebraska or Tennessee. Six-foot-four Krystal Thomas and 6-foot-5 Allison Vernerey have several inches on the Cornhusker stars and are a force to be reckoned with in the lane. No team has been able to successfully force Nebraska to live or die by the three yet this season, but if anyone is built to do just that, it’s Duke.
Pat Summitt and the Volunteers, on the other hand, would present a defensive test for the Blue Devils. Allowing its opponents just 57 points per game on 34.6 percent shooting and used to playing in front of big, boisterous crowds, Tennessee will be a tough out. However, McCallie’s squad has recorded even gaudier defensive numbers in a tougher conference, and is one of the only teams that can match up with the Volunteers’ massive frontcourt, the biggest reason Tennessee is in position to earn a No. 1 seed.
Now, Duke has issues of its own, highlighted by its overreliance on Jasmine Thomas to create offense, but to suggest that the Blue Devils won’t be in the April mix is ridiculous. As long as they stay far, far away from Connecticut.
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