ACC Now: Is Duke Better Equipped for March?

After Duke's blowout victory over Gonzaga, New Observer blogger Ken Tysiac tackled the question: Is Duke Better Equipped for March? His answer was both yes and no.

So the Blue Devils have solved their biggest problem with their rebounding, so perhaps they’ll be better in March. But the question mark on the perimeter remains a nagging doubt as the team seeks to end its Final Four drought.

To me, Tysiac's article makes a lot of sense. There is one key thing I think he is missing: assists. Duke's perimeter defense may still have some weaknesses, but for the first time in years, Duke can combat those weaknesses with its own strengths. The biggest problem with the Blue Devil's perimeter defense is that quick guards can get into the lane and dish the ball off for open shots. With senior Jon Scheyer at the point though, Duke is getting more easy looks than its opponents, something that has not been true the last couple seasons.

Look at it in terms of assist-to-turnovers. Here are the team statistics for the last decade:

Year           Assist-to-Turnover Ratio

09-10       1.5/1.0

08-09       1.1/1.0

03-04       1.1/1.0

02-03       1.0/1.0

01-02      1.25/1.0

00-01       1.3/1.0

The Blue Devil's last championship year also happens to be the year the team had its best assist-to-turnover ratio (ignoring 2009-2010 since it is the middle of the season). In 2001-2002, Duke reached just the Sweet 16, but had four losses all season. Not coincidentally, that was the year Duke has its second best ratio. The 2006-2007 season saw Duke lose 11 games. That year, Duke has its worst assist-to-turnover ratio of the decade.

Generic Script

So far this season, Duke is on pace to have its best assist-to-turnover ratio of any year this decade. Of course, it is still very early in the season and the Blue Devils have played some games that make that inflate that number. However, at this point last season, Duke's ratio was a meager 1.04/1 (166 assists, 159 turnovers as of 12/25/08). Even though the 2008-2009 team had faced some easy competition, it was still committing as many turnovers as it created assists. The 09-10 Blue Devil's have already faced tough challenges in Connecticut, Wisconsin, St. Johns, and Gonzaga. In those four games, the Blue Devils have 52 assists and just 41 turnovers - good for a 1.27 assist-to-turnover ratio.

In Duke's Sweet 16 loss to Villanova last season, the Blue Devils had seven assists and eleven turnovers. For the past couple of seasons, a lack of assists and multitude of turnovers have plagued the team. Tysiak is right in his argument that Duke's rebounding game is much better and its perimeter defense is still shaky. However, he leaves out Duke's newfound ability to limit its mistakes and maximizes easy baskets. For that reason, Duke is better equipped to make a longer run in March - and perhaps into April - this year.