Duke will make the Final Four this year. It may even win the national championship.
But it won't be because it has the most talent. This would be the North Carolina Invitational if that were the case.
The Blue Devils will play in April because they will have the most favorable matchups down the road.
It seems the cliché statement right now is that Duke will advance to the Sweet 16 and then immediately drop out, or at the most, get annihilated by Pittsburgh in the Elite Eight.
To an extent, I agree.
The Blue Devils can't beat Pittsburgh. They couldn't last year in overtime, and this year, the Panthers are infinitely better. That December game served as DeJuan Blair's coming-out party to the NCAA. This Dance could very well serve as his coming out to the NBA Draft lottery.
But there's a familiar roadblock in Pittsburgh's way-Florida State. Toney Douglas has caught fire and could put on the kind of performance that transforms him into a high draft pick, and last December, the Seminoles only lost by eight to the Panthers.
In that game, the score was tied at 48 with 2:23 left, and I believe this time, Florida State will make the late run to win the game.
Duke will have by then advanced to the Elite Eight. Binghamton is not Belmont-or so Blue Devils' fans hope-and while A.J. Abrams could force the issue with his unerring three-point shot, Duke still has more overall firepower than Texas to get to the Sweet 16.
Then the Blue Devils will run into arguably its hardest matchup of the region, Villanova. The Wildcats are a dangerous team, playing close to home and with a similar offensive style to Duke.
Call it a gut feeling-because I don't have hard statistics to back this up-but I think this is a case where with similar playing philosophies, whichever team has more talent will win. I trust Gerald Henderson, Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer are a better trio than Scottie Reynolds, Dante Cunningham and Corey Fisher.
The Elite Eight will mark the fourth time Duke has played Florida State. It will also be the fourth time that the Blue Devils defeat the Seminoles.
Duke hasn't exactly blown out Florida State in its three wins, but a seven-point average margin of victory can't be ignored-a number actually lower than it should be because the Seminoles scored meaningless points as time expired in two of the games.
Some might say trying to defeat the same team four times is playing against the odds-if they get four shots at you, they're bound to get one sooner or later, right?
But I say Duke's got to be doing something right if it's winning all those games with relative comfort, so it snags its first Final Four bid since 2004 with a 12-point victory.
So what happens when the Blue Devils get to the Final Four? Again, it depends on the matchup.
As much as a Duke-UNC Final Four matchup would feel like college basketball Armageddon, it's one the Blue Devils will want to avoid, especially since Ty Lawson will likely be fully healthy by then. Lawson has never lost to Duke in his career and on the biggest stage in collegiate sports, I doubt that would change for the same reason I don't see the Seminoles upsetting Duke in the Elite Eight.
Oklahoma, too, would give the Blue Devils headaches. The Sooners seem to be a popular early dropout pick, but I don't see Blake Griffin losing before the Sweet 16 at the earliest. If Griffin came to Detroit and saw Duke on the other side, he and the rest of the Sooners would be licking their chops.
But should one of the dark horses emerge out of the South and have to face the Blue Devils, it suddenly becomes a lot easier to make the championship game. Gonzaga and Syracuse are beatable opponents, and you'd be a fool to think that if Clemson somehow rampages to the Final Four, Duke wouldn't be extra motivated for that game.
Personally, I think the Blue Devils do make it to Detroit, but ultimately lose to eventual national champion Oklahoma, which beats Connecticut in the championship game. Call me crazy and stupid for not picking the most talented team.
But on game day, all that matters is the matchups. And Duke's potential matchups make it likely that a Final Four run is finally in order.
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