Conference play has not been kind to the Blue Devils in recent years.
Duke went 0-24 in the ACC in former head coach Ted Roof's last three seasons, and the team has dropped two straight league matchups after opening 1-0 this year.
But when the Blue Devils hit the road to take on non-conference foe Vanderbilt Saturday, Duke just might be facing the best team it will see all year, in any conference.
The 5-2 Commodores, usually a bottom-feeder in the SEC have been biggest surprise in a conference that boasts four top-15 teams.
Vanderbilt started the season with five straight wins and capped off the streak when it beat then-No. 13 Auburn Oct. 4 in one of the most exciting victories Vanderbilt Stadium has ever hosted. Since then, the squad has lost two straight to Mississippi State and No. 9 Georgia, but Duke is still wary of underestimating a team that is looking to secure its first winning season since 1982.
"They're a real good team all around, they're very disciplined and I believe Vanderbilt is better if not equal to Miami's defense," running back Clifford Harris said. "They understand that if they win one more game they're eligible for a bowl, which they haven't done in a while, so we just need to come out and match their intensity in order to compete with them."
The chance at bowl qualification is big news in Nashville, where head coach Bobby Johnson is in his seventh season. Johnson came closest to a bowl in 2005, current NFL quarterback Jay Cutler's senior season, but came up one win short. Still, Johnson's team's won six games in his first three years, and the program's stature and win total have climbed in recent campaigns.
The parallels between the Commodore program and the Blue Devils' are not lost on Duke head coach David Cutcliffe. The two schools share similar academic profiles and student body sizes, and they also share a gradual approach to improvement. Cutciffe has already tripled his team's win total from last year, and while he spoke of the high expectations he has for his team Tuesday, he also commented on his former SEC rival's long-term plan.
"Bobby's is a 'slow and steady wins the race' approach," said Cutcliffe, the former Ole Miss head coach and Tennessee offensive coordinator. "I opened up with him in Nashville his second year, and every year I coached against Bobby Johnson, you saw his teams get more confident and better."
To stay with the Commodores in front of a hostile Homecoming crowd, the Blue Devils will have to contend with a Vanderbilt offense that uses the run and the pass effectively to control the clock and keep its opponents out of sync. The Commodores do not typically win games in high-scoring shootouts-the SEC's talent and defensive speed make that just about impossible. Vanderbilt's offense currently ranks last in total offense in conference play, averaging just 249 yards per game.
In contrast, Duke's offense averages 325 yards per game, good for seventh in the ACC. But every team in the underwhelming ACC-including N.C. State, winless in the conference-is putting up more total offense than the Commodores.
SEC offenses might be less creative than their ACC counterparts, but the real reason for the anemic offenses is the wealth of defensive talent in the SEC, something the Blue Devils have little experience contesting.
To counter that level of defensive pressure, quarterback Thaddeus Lewis said he and his receivers need to make immediate adjustments. Last Saturday, Miami's cornerbacks gave Eron Riley, Raphael Chestnut and the rest of Duke's wide receivers several yards of space at the line of scrimmage, but the wideouts dropped a handful of catchable balls.
The Commodores will likely take the same approach as the Hurricanes, but the Blue Devils hope to reverse the outcome.
"Vanderbilt gives cushion, as well. They've won five games giving cushion so I don't think they're going to change for us," Lewis said. "They want to make us catch the ball and that's one of our challenges, and I expect our receivers to respond well."
Offensively, the Commodores have a well-balanced, if not always dynamic, style of play. Vanderbilt has rotated two quarterbacks, Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams, throughout the year, with Adams establishing himself as the starter in the last four weeks. Adams runs less often than Nickson, but both are true threats on the ground.
In addition, Vanderbilt's quarterbacks tend to take care of the ball, completing about 60 percent of their passes but throwing just five interceptions in seven games. Duke is preparing to face either player, as their styles differ only slightly, but the players expect Adams to take the majority of the snaps.
"We certainly have to find a way to contain the quarterbacks in this game because both [of them] can run and are effective throwing on the run," Cutcliffe said.
He was referring to Adams and Nickson, but could just as easily have been talking about the two signal-callers who gave Duke problems last week, Miami's Robert Marve and Jacory Harris. The duo combined for five passing touchdowns and one rushing score last week, and if Duke is unable to slow the Commodore offense-as it failed to slow Miami's, particularly after halftime-another ugly loss could be in store.
And while the two programs prefer a long-term approach to winning, both know what one win can do in the short term. For the Commodores, a win makes them bowl-eligible. And for Duke, a win keeps alive its outside chance at a bowl berth and, more than anything, indicates a shift in the season's momentum.
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