Crazy in the cornfields (and more)

Everyone knew this year's Republican presidential nomination would be a more interesting affair than its Democratic counterpart, and that's generally been true. But despite a smattering of newsworthy events over the summer, things seemed to be in stasis until very recently. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney led in crucial early states, but former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani had led in national polls. It looked like it was going to be a two-man race, but now we've got a game on our hands.

Back in August, and into September, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee was polling in single digits in Iowa and everywhere else. Last week's Newsweek poll has him at 39 percent in Iowa, more than doubling Mitt Romney, who had previously led almost every single Republican poll taken in the state.

I can't say I'm all that surprised. Huckabee's caught a wave at the right moment. His social conservatism and economic populism (by the standards of his party, at least) and the suspicion with which many view Romney's Mormonism proved a volatile mixture. Romney's address on his faith Thursday morning succeeded in making him look presidential and won plaudits, but it looked suspiciously like a defensive response to a former nobody; whether or not it will inject some life into his flagging numbers remains to be seen.

But Huckabee's numbers in other states remain anemic and his financial support sparse at best. Although a win in Iowa may change all of that, for the moment I take solace in his poor performance elsewhere.

Republicans don't have a slam dunk candidate this year; Bush has no heir apparent, and this disparate field is filled with flawed men. Huckabee may be the most eloquent in a homespun way (no Churchill, he) as well as the most likable. His social conservatism, unflinching as it is, is also no doubt welcome to a base discomfited with the apparent flip-flops of Romney and Rudy Giuliani.

On the issues that matter, however, Huckabee is a novice. Although his Web site informs voters that he's made nine trips to Israel over the years, I suspect that those had more to do with Bethlehem and the River Jordan than resolving issues related to the Gaza Strip or settlements in the West Bank. On other related critical issues-Iraq and the misnamed War on Terror, most notably-he seems to lack the depth of knowledge that I'd like to see in a Republican candidate.

His economic beliefs are suspect, too, even if he does have experience governing. He seems less devoted to free trade than a Republican should be; some have voiced serious concerns about his tax record while he was running Arkansas. But he's also had the courage to talk about shutting down the IRS and implementing a national sales tax, and anyone willing to talk about simplifying the tax code deserves at least a second look.

Given Huckabee's recent successes, however, I imagine there's one Republican who's pulling for him: John McCain. The Arizona senator's all but written off Iowa and is focusing on New Hampshire, where he continues to poll poorly behind Mitt Romney. His recent endorsement from the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state's only paper of note, has yet to produce any tangible benefits, but it might if the race opens up.