It's going to be an interesting summer. And putting it that way is a dramatic understatement. In the coming months, Republicans and Democrats will navigate the political landscape with an eye toward next fall's elections; presidential candidates will do the same.
The big story will be Iraq. Congress and the president are currently gearing up for a showdown over funding the war. Democrats will want a bill to include a timeline for withdrawal and some $20 billion of pork (nevermind their lambasting Republicans for the same thing last year). (If you figure out how $74 million for peanut farmers helps our troops, let me know.)
Immigration's another touchy subject, and it may be on this summer's agenda as well. The president's personal stance, with a path to citizenship, is viewed as too soft by much of his own party but may be well received among Democrats. The dynamics here will be interesting, as Republicans both please their base with stronger enforcement-first rhetoric and simultaneously distance themselves from an unpopular president. Some conservative Democrats may also want to take a strong position against illegal immigration, but their leadership may pull them in the other direction.
In the presidential race, the campaigns recently disclosed their first-quarter fundraising numbers. Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., was unequivocally the winner on the right, while Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., defied even the most optimistic expectations with his haul.
For Romney, the question is whether or not the massive amounts of cash he's raised will boost his lackluster poll numbers. Some show him behind former Sen. Fred Thompson (of Law & Order fame)-and Fred's not even officially running!
Sen. John McCain's, R-Ariz., fundraising numbers were astoundingly anemic, and the one-time frontrunner's going to have to show that he's not an afterthought. His campaign seems recently reinvigorated, evidenced by a string of recent speeches; he's wrapping himself in the flag and decrying the Democrats' handling of Iraq. It may burn him in the long run, but it seems like the old Straight Talk Express is back.
Rudy Giuliani's got some work to do with the social conservatives. Appearing in favor of government-funded abortions and suggesting that they're constitutionally mandated, are a bitter pill for conservative stalwarts. No one's perfect in this field, but the base may start to think that even Mitt's Mormonism is looking pretty good if he keeps it up.
But if anyone's under pressure, it's Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. She raised a fortune, some $25 million, but Obama's breathing down her neck. Moreover, his money's mostly for the primaries and comes from smaller donors (and more of them). Hillary, in contrast, took larger sums and thus has tapped out some donors already. But questions of substance still lurk, and Barack will have to show that there's more than just the flash if he wants to keep up his surge.
And then there are Congressional races; two razor-thin victories in the Senate and only about 100,000 votes overall in the House separated the two parties last November. The outcome in many of these contests will in part ride on the presidential nominees; Hillary will give red-state Democrats enormous headaches. This is especially true in the House, where conservative Democrats are between a rock and a hard place, seeking to placate their constituents while their party seeks to run left at high speed.
In the Senate, Democrats seem guardedly optimistic; meanwhile Republicans aren't nervous yet. The GOP could pick up seats in South Dakota (should the convalescent Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., decide not to seek re-election) and/or Louisiana with a bit of luck-but there are still rumors of retirement swirling around Sens. John Warner of Virginia and Thad Cochran of Mississippi. If either retires, the resulting races could be extremely competitive (especially Virginia, where popular former governor Mark Warner would be the Democrats' go-to guy). Meanwhile in Oregon, there's the possibility of Republican fratricide (à la Rhode Island 2006).
The storylines in the House will revolve around freshmen who aren't traditionally in line with their district (most often, Democrats in districts that Bush carried once or twice) and thus may be vulnerable. It's this reality that will complicate policy-making until Election Day as they're caught between constituents and the leadership.
This isn't even everything; it's going to be an interesting summer!
Gill Stevens is a Trinity junior. His column runs every other Thursday.
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