A capital city that's recently seen significant political upheaval is now hanging on the edge of bitter civil war; the new Democratic majority seems ready to go to war with itself.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi finds herself in an unenviable position, playing peacemaker while trying to pass legislation. So far she's been successful, but it's increasingly doubtful if she can maintain order.
Since Vietnam, the Democratic Party has seen two parallel paths of development. One branch is the remnant of the Solid South, conservative-minded Democrats from states like Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri. These "Blue Dogs" are often pro-gun and pro-life; many are also wary of efforts to withdraw our troops from Iraq immediately.
The other end of the spectrum is dominated by a group often described as "progressive." These members agitate for universal health care and a bigger government; a subgroup is leading the charge for immediate retreat. In the middle are the remaining "moderate" Democrats, the foundation on which Pelosi must build a majority on most votes.
Since the election, both factions have begun to feel somewhat unappreciated and both have begun to realize they can throw their weight around. All grievances have some legitimacy: progressive organizers, the so-called "netroots," contributed to the victory though their valuation of their contribution may be overstated. These organizers also backed some Blue Dogs, such as North Carolina's Heath Shuler, which has given both factions a greater sense of entitlement.
The restlessness is increasingly apparent on Iraq, where a strange dynamic has developed. Progressives threaten to oppose measures that aren't sufficiently anti-war while Blue Dogs are wary of efforts to undercut the troops. As has been recently evidenced in the fight over funding for the troops, Pelosi is reduced to reminding Progressives that should they vote against her bill, they'll help defeat Democratic efforts. Should that happen, she's threatened to offer a bill even more antithetical to Progressive foolishness, which will likely be passed by a mixture of Blue Dogs and Republicans.
Having held their noses to support "unenlightened" candidates, Progressives feel they have been denied a seat at the table. Instead, so the indictment goes, the allegedly "evil" Democratic Leadership Council (that pro-business and pro-free trade effort that actually produced the last Democratic president) has been trying to silence them. They howled when freshmen were briefed not by old-school labor hacks but by Clinton Treasury officials; they felt short-changed when their candidate for Majority Leader was defeated.
And if they feel betrayed, activists and some members may seek revenge. That all of these alleged slights may only be imagined is almost irrelevant-not all involved seem to have a sure grip on reality, as evidenced by one Caucus member's infamous hearings into the CIA's role in distributing crack in inner cities (let that sink in for a moment).
The most likely mechanism for revenge would be grassroots primary challenges to offending members. California Democrat Ellen Tauscher is already hearing rumblings of such an insurgency. There is in all of this an unsettling element of a quest for ideological purity; the progressives seem to believe they are on the forefront of a revolution in American politics that will usher in a quasi-socialist paradise and those who stand in their way, Republicans or unprogressive Democrats alike, must be removed.
Such fratricide is by no means inevitable: Pelosi has thus far held the warring factions together. But a tipping point may be approaching. It could be Iraq. It could be the U.S. Attorneys scandal, which might finally cause Progressives to attempt impeachment against administration officials, despite Pelosi's express refusal to allow any such action.
But if it comes I'll be content. We'll see an end to the myth of a unified, "big tent" Democratic Party as the Progressives-the embodiment of every negative stereotype about the party-take over and display their true colors. What will happen to the Blue Dogs is unclear. But Republicans will be waiting in the wings, reenergized and refocused on core principles by their time in the minority. I'm not suggesting any sort of manifest destiny such as progressives seem to subscribe to. Merely, I think voters will remember some of the reasons Democrats were unseated in the first place.
Gill Stevens is a Trinity junior. His column runs every other Thursday.
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