Who's afraid of Barack Obama?

Robert Ford produced an uproar last week when he said that nominating Sen. Barack Obama for president would be a disaster for the Democratic Party. Ford gave voice to the fears-and hopes-of many pundits and activists when he said that "every Democrat running on that ticket next year would lose, because he's black and he's top of the ticket."

As surprising and impolitic as his comments are, what's even more surprising is Mr. Ford-the South Carolina state senator is himself a black Democrat.

The uproar in the wake of Ford's comments brings to light a lot of uncomfortable questions about our country and whether we're ready to elect someone other than a white male. Blacks elected to such high office are also unusual; Obama is only the fifth African American to have been elected to the Senate.

So does Ford have a point? He might only be speaking in self-interest, as he's deep inside Sen. Hillary Clinton's camp and is one of her two biggest boosters in South Carolina. An aside: soon after her other major supporter in the state, state Sen. Darrell Jackson, endorsed her, it came out that Jackson's media consulting firm had negotiated a contract worth $10,000 per month with the Clinton campaign (I'm not saying, I'm just saying). But there are other signs that Hillary should be afraid of Obama, if she isn't already. It's not just his rock-star appeal or the fact that he's the media's darling, it's the fact that he's challenging her for some traditional Clinton constituencies.

Toni Morrison famously declared that Bill Clinton was the "first black president," and during his time in the White House, he was popular in the African-American community. No doubt Hillary & Co. assumed that with Bill at her side she would be able to rely on similar support from this traditional Democratic constituency during the primaries. Obviously Obama throws that assumption into serious doubt, especially in South Carolina.

Then there's Hollywood, which has always adored Bill and was assumed to be another source of support (and more importantly, money) for Hillary. Steven Spielberg has been an unabashed Clintonista for years, but on Tuesday night he was among the hosts of a 700-person fundraiser for Obama. Obama's star supporters, including Oprah and George Clooney, were in attendance (so too was superagent Ari Emanuel, brother of Illinois Congressman Rahm Emanuel and the model for Entourage's Ari Gold). Spielberg said that he will co-host a fundraiser for Hillary next month. But instead of the producers of Dreamgirls, he will be hosting with a supermarket magnate; compared to the star-studded fete he threw for Obama last night, it sounds like Hillary got the short end of the stick.

So clearly Hillary should be afraid of Barack Obama. But Republicans should too, surprising as that might seem. Given the right climate, Obama might be the catalyst for some interesting political developments. If the GOP nominates a candidate who fails to impress the party's conservative base (which looks likely right now) and they stay home, while Obama's candidacy could turn out the black vote like never before, it might cause the GOP some serious trouble. Democrats only need to win one more big state than they did in 2004 to win the White House, most likely Ohio or Florida, and in either state that particular combination could carry the day. In local races across the nation, if conservatives stay home but African Americans flock to the polls, we might see some unexpected outcomes. So the GOP has reason to fear him.

But can he really win? Polls suggest his skin color is largely a nonissue, but polling numbers on black candidates are notoriously inaccurate. Observers often refer to it as the "15-percent lie"; it's the unfortunate fact that people will often say one thing to pollsters, feeling societal pressures to do so, but then vote the other way. No doubt we'll be hearing a lot about the 1996 presidential exit polls when it looked like Colin Powell would have won if he'd run, but those numbers may have lied. Again, I'm not saying, I'm just saying.