Although many wish they could be confident in their expectations for the results of Tuesday’s presidential election between President George W. Bush and challenger Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass, the heads of Duke’s student political groups agree the race is too close to call early.
Republican student groups on campus may seem confident, but with the finish line only hours away and victory celebrations planned, they remain wary of certainty.
“I feel slightly confident, but I do not have overblown confidence,” said senior Daniel Kennedy, an officer in the Duke Conservative Union and Duke College Republicans. “There is a possibility [the electoral vote] could be 269 to 269.”
Junior Erica Stalnecker, chair of Duke College Republicans, also did not believe she could speculate as to the potential election outcome. “I don’t feel comfortable making a prediction,” she said. “It will be very, very close.”
Democratic student groups on campus have their own expectations that Kerry will carry the election. “I think that it will be very close, but I think that Kerry will win,” said junior Megan Montgomery, vice president of Duke for Kerry.
John Korman, an officer of DCU, stressed the difficulty of predicting the election due to unexpectedly high voter participation and a large number of swing states. “Voter turnout will be an unknown variable in determining the outcome,” he said.
With such a tight election, voter turnout is expected to increase as citizens feel that each ballot carries more weight. Partisan efforts to get supporters to the polls also increase as election results seems more uncertain. Students disagree, however, on whether these efforts are motivated directly by the closeness of the race, general student interest in politics or their beliefs in the importance of civic responsibility.
“It is not so much the closeness of the race but the student passion” that has inspired efforts to get students to the polls, said Steven Vickers, an officer of DCU. “It makes people feel better; it makes them feel like they’re involved,” he said.
John Transue, professor of political science, said enthusiasm and competition are two separate factors in motivating voters. “The two don’t have to be linked,” he said. “There are people who spend countless hours volunteering for lost causes, but they feel good about it.”
Korman, however, said voter motivation this year was particularly strong because of the unexpected nature of the election. “People are beginning to realize that if the race wasn’t as close, people wouldn’t take as much interest, but now it’s a headline so people are interested,” he said.
Montgomery said while it would be “discouraging” if pre-election polls overwhelmingly favored Bush, she and Duke for Kerry would have still put in as much effort to promoting their candidate.
Other student leaders such as Steven Danforth, co-vice president and secretary of Duke College Republicans agreed that effort is separate to candidate popularity. Stalnecker added that it was irresponsible to assume a certain win for either candidate.
In the spirit of political enthusiasm, several students are out on Election Day to get out the vote—despite differences in party affiliations.
“The goal is to get the people to the polls,” Kennedy said. “It is a matter of civic responsibility. Large participation benefits the overall electoral process.”
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