If the recent schizophrenic weather has you wondering whether you should be wearing shorts or a sweater, you're not the only living thing at Duke that is perplexed.
The effects of climate change are making an impact on the Sarah P. Duke Gardens, as plants and trees are now blooming much earlier than usual. "The bulbs seem to be confused," said Greg Nace, director of horticultural operations at the Gardens. "We've had bulbs that have come out of the ground due to November's warm weather. There're also cherry trees that have started to bloom even though they usually do so in the Spring."
Although this season's phenomena is relatively random, scientists say it may be just a preview of what's to come as the 21st century hurtles forward.
Rob Jackson, professor of biology and director of Duke's program in ecology, said that global warming may affect the Gardens and the Piedmont of North Carolina in general. "But we're thinking about decades into the future," he said.
This renewed attention in the environment comes at a time when President George W. Bush will meet this week in Washington with the energy ministers of 15 countries to discuss the future of hydrogen use. If the ecologist's prediction holds true, then the Gardens, with its breathtakingly beautiful yellow pines and magnolias, may be under threat, with horticulturists forced to re-design them to suit changing conditions.
The BBC reported last year that current climate trends are leading to reduced frosts, earlier springs, higher than average temperatures all year round, increased winter rainfall and hotter, drier summers which could increase the risk of droughts.
Richard White, director of the Gardens, said the characteristics that might be expected to accompany global warming are certainly becoming more apparent.
"This past summer was extraordinarily wet," White said. "In contrast, the summer of '02 was extraordinarily dry, and plants in the Gardens suffered and required supplementary watering." White said that although global warming is currently not at the top of their current priority lists, it would be an interesting issue for further consideration.
James Reynolds, professor of biology and director of the University's phytotron, a high-tech greenhouse, said the factual evidence for global warming is solid. Much of the evidence is collected at "global scales," such as using satellite data over the earth's surface. If temperatures in Durham were to rise, he said the plants will probably do fine, as many of them are exotics and are somewhat hardy.
According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's website, the average temperature in Chapel Hill has increased 1.2°F and precipitation has increased by up to 5 percent in many parts of the state over the last century. It is predicted that the climate in North Carolina may change even more over the next century.
But Reynolds was quick to stress that it is very difficult to show cause and effect when it comes to global warming.
"I would be reluctant to attribute any observed changes in the flora, if there were any, to evidence of global warming," he said. "If long term records were kept with regard to the timing of flowering of some of the species, and if this data showed that the plants were, in fact, flowering later into the winter season each year over the past decade or so, this would suggest something is happening."
Horticulturist Paul Jones said that although global warming may be a reality, the management and protocol at the Gardens have remained largely unchanged.
"We are taking measures to be more efficient with water, but these measures are more out of concern for limited water resources than because of global warming," Jones said.
Junior Channa Pickett, president of Environmental Alliance, a student organization committed to promoting the implementation of sustainable practices, said she did not think many Duke students are aware of the seriousness of global warming.
"One of our main goals is to get Duke to conform to the Kyoto standards, even if our country's government won't," Pickett said. The club currently does not have a campaign targeting global warming specifically.
The Kyoto treaty, which aims to curb greenhouse-gas emissions, has been ratified by almost 100 countries. It has not yet been signed by the United States.
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