Before this season of ACC basketball got underway, nobody knew what to expect. A league which produced the last two national champions had lost nearly all of its well-known star power, and instead was ready to welcome some of the best recruiting classes in the country. Familiar names like Jason Williams, Juan Dixon and Roger Mason were nowhere to be found. Taking their places were players like J.J. Redick, John Gilchrist, Raymond Felton and Chris Bosh.
"There are some teams in this league that have questions to be answered for the first time in a few years, and it will be important for a lot of us to get off to good starts," Clemson head coach Larry Shyatt said before the season began. "November and December are going to be very important."
ACC teams did in fact open up well. The conference's nine teams have posted a 80-22 record against non-conference opposition, with many of those games being played in the season's opening months. The ACC won it's third consecutive ACC-Big Ten challenge, and at one point Duke and Wake Forest were the nation's last two undefeated teams.
Yet now, with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, the ACC is poised to have one of its worst postseason representations ever, as only three teams--Duke, Maryland and Wake Forest--are likely to earn an NCAA Tournament bid, while a fourth--N.C. State--sits squarely on the fence.
Why was Shyatt's assessment so misguided? A young team makes for an inconsistent one, and this season, many potential contenders have floundered a bit too often.
Virginia came into the season with high hopes, and for the early part of the season looked like a legit contender. Only two weeks ago, the Cavs boasted a 14-7 record, including a 5-4 mark in ACC play. But after dropping their last four games--including losses at UNC and home against Clemson--the Cavaliers seem destined for the NIT, assuming that they can close out against Ohio tonight to ensure a winning record.
Georgia Tech entered this season with hopes for the future, as the team is built primarily around freshmen and sophomores, including ACC freshman of the year candidate Chris Bosh. The Yellow Jackets have been perhaps the ACC's least consistent team, and though a Feb. 9 win against Maryland revived postseason hopes, a loss tonight against Duke will leave Tech with a .500 record and on the fence for the NIT.
Perhaps the biggest emotional swing this season has been for North Carolina, which began the year with low expectations. Everything changed, however, when the Tar Heels beat Kansas and Stanford en route to a Preseason NIT title. UNC entered the top 25, and fans in Chapel Hill had a great deal for which to give thanks in late November.
But just as quickly as they had exceeded expectations, the Tar Heels came crashing back down to earth. A Dec. 27 loss to Iona was the turning point, as freshman center Sean May suffered a broken foot as has not played since. May's injury, as well as a slump for fellow freshman Rashad McCants, has all but assured that Matt Doherty will spend his second consecutive postseason in front of a television.
Receiving only three NCAA Tournament bids would be a colossal disappointment for the ACC, as conferences such as the Atlantic 10 and Conference USA are likely to meet or exceed that number. Meanwhile, other major conferences like the Big 12 and SEC are looking at six bids or more.
Should only three teams make the field of 65, they will face a challenge slightly different than that of years past. For the past six years, at least one ACC team has made the Final Four. In March, Duke, Maryland and Wake will have the chance to continue that streak and assert that while the ACC may have lost some of its depth, it's prestige remains intact.
Evan Davis is a Trinity senior and senior associate sports editor. His column appears every Wednesday.
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