With teammates Mike Dunleavy and Jay Williams making rumbles as probable top-five picks, the third Blue Devil to decide to leave school early and test the NBA waters, senior Carlos Boozer, has gotten lost in the mix.
Boozer made the decision along with Williams to leave at the beginning of the 2001-2002 season. By doing this, the pair are forgoing their senior seasons and entering the draft at the end of their junior year. Boozer has already hired an agent, Arn Tellem, thus insuring that he cannot come back to Duke.
However, where he will likely end up is far from certain. Tellem could not be reached for comment, but Sports Illustrated college basketball analyst Seth Davis said he thought Boozer could be drafted in a variety of places.
"I think he will probably go in the end of the first round, but just ask Chris Carrawell about everything that can happen," Davis said.
Many other experts agree with Davis--most notably some of the top sports websites that churn out countless numbers of "mock drafts." Currently, The Sporting News' website, whose draft has Boozer projected highest, predicts the Phoenix Suns will grab the Juneau, Ak., native the 22nd pick. The site declares that Boozer is "a pure power forward--nothing more, nothing less."
The website www.nbadraft.net asserts that Boozer will go to the Denver Nuggets with pick No. 25. The Nuggets obtained that draft slot, which should belong to the Dallas Mavericks, from a previous trade between the two clubs.
ESPN.com's mock draft has Boozer landing with the Sacramento Kings courtesy of the No. 28 pick, and finally, CNNSI.com does not believe 6-foot-9 forward will go in the first round at all.
Despite what the experts say, a lot could change for Boozer prior to draft day. It is possible that he could move significantly up or down depending on his performances in predraft workouts. There is also the Duke factor; the idea that because he played for one of the premier college programs and coaches in the country he will do better than the scouts predict. That same theory landed former men's basketball star Trajan Langdon with the Cleveland Cavaliers, who selected the Blue Devil with the 13th pick in 1999 draft, much earlier than expected.
Another factor that could effect Boozer's draft position is the decisions of other players, mainly Dunleavy and Stanford's Casey Jacobsen. If the either of the pair, both of whom are expected to be chosen in the first round, decide to return to school, it will free up an extra slot higher in the draft. This could give Boozer enough of a cushion that, even if he drops slightly on draft day, he would still be a first rounder--a benefit that carries with it an automatic contract.
Regardless, it may ultimately be Boozer's size that holds him back. Currently, he's not quite tall enough to play the four position in the NBA, yet he has too much muscle and lacks the jump shooting and ball handling skills to be a force at small forward at the next level.
"He's a tweener," Davis said. "He's not tall enough to be a power forward, yet he never really developed a good medium-range jumpshot--that's going to cost him in the draft."
Davis added that he thought Boozer's biggest asset was his physical strength, and that if he worked hard in the NBA he could become a solid "blue-collar type guy" who could play a good ten-plus year career.
"I'd be surprised but not shocked if he slipped into the lottery, but I'd also be surprised but not shocked if he fell to the second round," Davis said.
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