Virginia (22-7, 13-3 in the ACC)
RPI: 19
Key Wins: NCSU, @ NCSU, Duke
Bad Losses: St. Joseph's, Kent, Maryland
Magic 8ball says: It is certain
Debbie Ryan for coach of the year is the easiest decision since the Mike Tyson/Peter McNeeley fight. The seasoned Virginia coach has done her best coaching job ever at Virginia. After losing three-time All-ACC center DeMya Walker to graduation and stumbling to a 4-4 record midway through December, Ryan suffered another blow when preseason first-team All-ACC point guard Erin Stovall quit the team for personal reasons. The Cavs shrugged off major setbacks like a light rain and turned it on strong down the stretch, going 18-3 since Dec. 20. They don't have any strong out of conference wins, but the NCAA rewards late surges. If the 'Hoos win the ACC Tournament, a low No. 2 seed is likely. Expect the selection committee to go Ollie North on the early losses (doesn't "I have no recollection of that loss to Kent, Senator," sound especially fitting?) and reward the Cavs with a No. 3 seed for anything other than a complete first-round ACC collapse.
Duke (23-5, 12-4)
RPI: 13
Key Wins: Penn State, N.C. State, Virginia, Vanderbilt
Bad Losses: Maryland
Magic 8ball says: Without a doubt
It's easy to say this Duke team overachieved, but when it could've done so much more, it's hard not to be a little disappointed. It wasn't Duke's fault of course, the season-ending injury to Peppi Browne halted the momentum of an 18-2 team that could have easily grabbed a two seed in the tournament. But Gail Goestenkors turned the Titanic iceberg into a bump on the road and after a brief two-game losing streak directly on the heels of Browne's injury, she righted the Blue Devil ship. But Duke is not the same potent squad that it was with Browne on the floor. Although Krista Gingrich has stepped up her play lately, the team hasn't been able to replicate her on-court leadership and it's noticeable. Duke gets a top-four seed barring a first round loss to the winner of the No. 7/No. 8 game, but the committee will award the seed to the Browne-less team, not the team before it. A tournament title could mean a two seed, but Duke likely enters the tournament at No. 3.
N.C. State (20-7, 11-5)
RPI: 15
Key Wins: Rutgers, Duke
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech
Magic 8ball says: Yes
Early in the season, jumping on the N.C. State bandwagon was more fashionable than Calvin Klein. The surprising win over then-No. 4 Rutgers and a 14-game win streak to start the season that lasted into January saw any and everybody around the nation buying N.C. State's drive for the title talk. But broken bones in last year's ACC Player of the Year Summer Erb's foot in early February sent N.C. State's title chances plummeting. The 'Pack's big problem is that they didn't show they could win without their superstar, dropping their last three games of the season, including one to lowly Georgia Tech. The 'Pack likely won't survive the first round, and four straight losses will be as impressive to the selection committee as a Chevette on prom night. N.C. State enters as a No. 6 seed.
Clemson (18-10, 9-7)
RPI: 43
Key Wins: Kentucky, UNC, @ UNC
Bad Losses: Maryland
Magic 8ball says: It is likely
If there was ever a coach you wanted to see catch a break here and there, it's Jim Davis. Clemson's personable coach took a team that lost five seniors from last year's squad and was picked to finish next to last in the ACC this season and still almost finished in the top three. The Tigers won all the games they were supposed to with the exception of Maryland, losing their other six conference games to the league's top three teams. A first round tournament win over UNC goes a long way to getting in the tournament, but the Tigers are likely in anyway, but the seeding won't be pretty. Clemson enters as a No. 9 seed.
UNC (16-11, 8-8)
RPI: 49
Key Wins: Nikki Teasley 1, Sylvia Hatchell 0
Bad Losses: @ WFU, @ Georgia Tech
Magic 8ball says: Concentrate and ask again later
In the media guide, you'll be told that this North Carolina team is head coach Sylvia Hatchell's 14th at UNC. That's a little misleading. It's Nikki Teasley's first. The point guard took this team over and molded it in her swaggering image, and the results have been disastrous. Sure, it works for Teasley, but no one else on the team has the talent to go with the game, and Hatchell has failed to take control. With their win over Duke in the regular season finale, Hatchell says the Heels are all but in the tournament. 17-11 is shaky, 16-12 is impossible. Two tournament wins will guarantee a spot, but the first one isn't given. The Committee will note that the 1-6 mark compiled during Teasley's absence for personal reasons is what killed UNC's record, but it's one loss away from a comfy couch in Granville Towers for the NCAAs. Probably won't happen though, UNC enters as a No. 12 seed.
Maryland, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest (not good)
RPI: Probably
Key Wins: Several, but mostly in cribbage
Bad Losses: If a bad team falls in the forest, does the NCAA committee hear it?
Magic 8ball says: The Magic 8ball refuses to answer, instead preferring to calculate how many trees gave their lives for the production of this section.
These teams get in when Chris Weller is on the cover of Sports Illustrated's swimsuit issue. You could tease them about finding the local golf course, but if you make judgments from their basketball ability, you'll want to point them towards the putt-putt course.
Ray Holloman is a Trinity junior and associate sports editor of The Chronicle.
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