Although the North Carolina gubernatorial election is still 20 months away, politicians statewide are already revving their engines for the race to succeed 14-year governor Jim Hunt.
Two weeks ago, State House Republican leader Leo Daughtry became the first to announce his candidacy. But several other prominent North Carolinians have been working behind the scenes to prepare for the race.
Because Hunt-a fourth-term Democrat who has occupied the governor's mansion for the last six years-is barred from seeking a third consecutive term by the state's constitution, the upcoming race for the state's highest post is expected to be the most unpredictable in years.
Democrats considering a run include Lieutenant Governor Dennis Wicker and Attorney General Mike Easley.
Democrats lost a potential star candidate when Erskine Bowles-a Charlotte native and President Bill Clinton's former chief of staff-recently announced his decision not to seek the governorship.
Joining Daughtry among possible GOP candidates are State Rep. Chuck Neely from Raleigh and former Charlotte Mayor Richard Vinroot, who lost in the 1996 gubernatorial primary to Robin Hayes. Neely has established a campaign committee and Vinroot has been actively raising funds and traveling the state since last April.
"I couldn't handicap which party will win the governorship at all," said Ted Arrington, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. "It really depends on the personalities of the people."
Republicans have dominated state politics in recent years, Arrington said, with only a few Democrats in key leadership positions-namely, Hunt and United States senator John Edwards.
But the Clinton impeachment has driven the GOP's nationwide approval rating down to 23 percent, the lowest in decades.
Arrington said he sees Easley and Wicker as the two strongest candidates for the Democratic nomination, with Easley holding a slight advantage.
"The problem with being lieutenant governor is that you disappear into a hole called the General Assembly," Arrington said, "whereas as attorney general you can be an independent operator and do all kinds of things to generate publicity."
Bob Phillips, a representative of Wicker's office, said although Wicker has received encouragement to run, his "priority will continue to be doing the best job he can as lieutenant governor."
Easley has been highly visible in the recent debate over the allocation of North Carolina's $4.6-billion share of the nationwide tobacco settlement.
He negotiated a court-appointed consent degree that allowed the legislature to use the money to create foundations for tobacco-based communities.
Daughtry was also involved in the tobacco debate. He vocally opposed the formation of a foundation early on, and later advocated giving funds directly to tobacco farmers rather than to tobacco-supported communities.
Daughtry's statewide connections could help his candidacy, Arrington said, but both he and Neely lack Vinroot's name recognition.
"Richard is the only person running, Republican or Democrat, who has run a government," said Charles Jonas, Vinroot's campaign manager. "He ran for four years quite effectively a large bureaucracy, and that is experience I think no one else has."
Vinroot's main weakness is that he has not defined himself politically, Arrington said. Thus he is not trusted by conservatives, the voters most likely to make their voices heard in the primary election.
All potential candidates, if they hope to win, must run campaigns with deep pockets, Arrington noted. "Money dominates this whole business, especially in the primary," he said.
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