This weekend in Greensboro, a lot more is at stake than the Atlantic Coast Conference title.
For four ACC men's basketball teams, the outcome of the tournament will determine their plans for the rest of the month.
Of the nine teams in the conference, three-Duke, North Carolina and Maryland-are almost certainly guaranteed NCAA Tournament berths. Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State and Georgia Tech await a much less certain fate.
Unless No. 1 Duke (27-2, 15-1 ACC) and No. 4 UNC (27-3, 13-3 ACC) bow out of the ACC Tournament before the championship game, they should both be locks for No. 1 seeds. The ideal seeding for each would be No. 1 in the East region, as the East Regional Championship will take place in their home away from home-the Greensboro Coliseum. A win in the final round or an early exit by Carolina should give the Blue Devils the top seed in the East. On the other hand, if the Tar Heels take the ACC Tournament title, they will likely earn that coveted position.
Maryland, the only other NCAA Tournament lock in the ACC, should receive at least a No. 6 seed, and that only if the Terrapins lose to Georgia Tech in the first round Friday. With a 10-6 conference record (18-9 overall) and a huge overtime win over Carolina Jan. 14, they can expect a No. 5 seed-No. 4 if they beat advance beyond the semifinals.
None of the rest of the ACC teams have winning conference records. With ACC records of 7-9, Clemson and Wake Forest are the closest. The Tigers will face the Demon Deacons in the first round Friday, and whichever team wins that game should get an NCAA bid. The two teams split the regular season; there's no clear-cut winner to predict in this one.
With an overall record of 17-12, Clemson should make it to the big dance. Regular season losses to Gonzaga and ACC cellar-dweller Virginia could hurt the Tigers' chances, but they should still pack their bags for a trip to the NCAA Tournament. If they lose on Friday, they probably won't be seeded higher than No. 10. A win in the first round may bump it up to a top-eight seeding.
"If you're 7-9 in this league, I think you deserve a bid," Clemson coach Rick Barnes said. "I certainly believe this league deserves six teams [in the NCAA Tournament.]"
Wake Forest also has a good chance of being awarded an NCAA Tournament berth, but with a record of 15-12, its prospects are slightly dimmer than Clemson's. A blowout home loss to Duke won't help, but a No. 31 RPI rating will. It would be shocking if the selection committee denied the Demon Deacons a bid, but don't expect to see them seeded in the top 10 unless they beat Clemson in the first round, and probably the winner of the Duke-Virginia game in the semis.
Florida State and Georgia Tech are truly on the bubble. Both teams have overall records of 17-12 and ACC records of 6-10. No team with 10 conference losses has ever gotten to the big dance, but this is the ACC, and in what many claim to be the toughest conference in collegiate basketball, anything is possible.
The Seminoles have a strong schedule-10th in the nation in the RPI ratings-that could get them into the tournament. An 84-79 win over defending national champion Arizona highlights their regular season slate.
The 'Noles will most definitely have to win their first-round matchup against N.C. State Thursday night to be invited to the NCAA Tourney. This could prove difficult, as the Wolfpack tends to come on strong late in the season, upending North Carolina in the Dean Dome on Feb. 21. If Florida State can beat the 'Pack on Thursday and pull off an upset over Carolina Friday, it should gain an NCAA bid, but if not, it will probably be heading for the NIT.
Like FSU, Georgia Tech's NCAA Tournament chances ride on its success in the ACC Tournament. Conference wins over Wake (twice) and Clemson should count in the Yellow Jackets' favor. Its three-game losing streak, though, may put it at a disadvantage going into this weekend.
The Rambling Wreck faces Maryland in its first-round contest Friday. While a win is unlikely-the Terps swept the Jackets in the regular season-it would be the key to getting an invitation to the big dance. If Tech upsets the Terrapins, it can expect to see UNC in its semifinal round Saturday. A Feb. 8 double-overtime loss to North Carolina showed that the Yellow Jackets can play with the Heels. If Georgia Tech can pull off one or more upsets, it should get an NCAA Tournament berth. Matt Harpring won't want to end his college basketball career with a trip to the NIT.
Late-season heroics got N.C. State to the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year, but don't expect it to go much farther. With a 15-13 overall and a 5-11 conference record, the Wolfpack looks to be NIT-bound. The 'Pack showed its teeth in a win at UNC, but one big win won't be enough to get them an NCAA bid. Unless State wins the whole enchilada this weekend, it won't be getting into the NCAA Tournament.
At the bottom of the ACC, Virginia will be hard-pressed to beat Duke Thursday night, let alone go any farther this season. The Cavaliers' 11-18 overall record and 3-13 conference mark make them appear destined to spend the rest of the month watching the action from their couches back home in Charlottesville.
Whatever happens this weekend, with Duke, Carolina and Maryland virtually into the big dance and at least two more teams close, the ACC as a whole should make a strong showing in the NCAA Tournament.
"I don't see any type of scenario, ever, in which the ACC should ever get less than five teams in the tournament," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said.
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