The outcome of the Atlantic Coast Conference Women's Tournament and the NCAA seeds that will result from it are about as easy to figure out as the viscoelastic behavior of collagen-rich tissues. Really, that easy.
For Wake Forest, Florida State or Georgia Tech to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament, it would take both a miracle and a tournament championship. Neither appears probable.
Duke, ranked eighth nationally and the regular-season ACC champion, is in the driver seat for an excellent seed in the NCAAs. Guards Hilary Howard and Nicole Erickson have been strong all year and Michele VanGorp looked quite impressive versus Virginia on Sunday. A victory over the winner of the play-in game is highly likely, which could potentially produce a rematch with rival UNC. An exit in the semifinals would drop Duke to a three or four seed. A trip to the finals should produce at least a three seed, while a win in the finals could give the Blue Devils a solid shot at a two spot.
Clemson, who won a tiebreaker for second seed in the ACC Tourney, will clearly receive a bid to the Big Dance. Guard play is huge for the Tigers as well. Itoro Umoh and Amy Geren have led them all season and hope to lead them to another appearance in the ACC finals. If Clemson loses in the semis, it will receive a probable five or six seed. Advancing to the finals could place the Tigers as high as third in their region.
N.C. State, ranked No. 9 in the country, comes into the tournament off a tough loss at Duke and a big rebound win versus UNC. Momentum is now on the side of the Wolfpack, who will likely face Clemson in the second round, a team it split home wins with over the season. Describing the Wolfpack in two words is easy: Chasity Melvin. Clutch players come through in clutch situations; this is her chance. A tournament championship could place State at a possible two seed, while a finals loss could leave them at three or four.
UNC, ranked 10th in the country, has the potential for a strong weekend run. When forward Tracy Reid plays well, the Tar Heels win. There is no doubt she would like to see UNC win its second straight tournament championship. A first-round win could set up the aforementioned rematch with Duke, but the Tar Heels cannot look past Virginia, who they will play in round one. This will likely be the most exciting first round game. These two teams have played a combined five overtimes against each other in the regular season, with UVa winning on the road in three overtimes and UNC returning the favor at UVa in two. A good showing by the Tar Heels leaves with a probable three or four seed.
Virginia is going to the NCAAs but has a great opportunity to receive a high seed with a few wins. The Cavs have been a top-25 team all year and finished above .500 in one of the nation's toughest conferences. Guard Mimi McKinney and forward DeMya Walker have an inside-outside attack that could cause problems for the four higher seeds in the tourney. A five or six seed in the NCAAs seems likely for the Cavaliers, but a four is not out of the question.
Maryland has an outside shot at an at-large bid, but it is barely touching the proverbial bubble. The Terps need to at least make it to the finals and play well to have any hope. Maryland has two big wins in its corner, one over UNC by 22 and a one-point win over Duke. These wins are about all the Terps have, though. Their chance of making the tourney are about as good as Kenny's chances of surviving an episode of "South Park."
In the women's NCAAs, it is a great advantage to be seeded in the top four of a region because those teams get to host the first two rounds versus lower seeds. It is possible that six early round games could be held in the Triangle area if Duke, UNC and N.C. State are all given top four places.
This is certainly a home court advantage for the five ACC teams trying for these spots. The combined home record of the top five ACC finishers is 60-6, with Clemson going undefeated in 13 tries on its home floor. Any of these teams that play the first two rounds at home have an excellent chance at a Sweet Sixteen appearance, at least.
What will happen this weekend in Charlotte? No one knows for sure, but here is this writer's opinion: Duke holds off UNC in a tight one and Clemson falls to State by double figures in the semis. Duke plays another "barn-burner" against the Wolfpack, but once again the outside shooting falls short for State. Duke wins the tourney by the closest of margins, maybe even a mere three-pointer.
So, while the collagen-rich tissues may never fully be understood, the ACC Tournament picture will be much clearer Sunday night after the tournament champion has been crowned.
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