Last weekend, I could have been covering, or at least paying five dollars to watch, the NCAA men's soccer championships. Instead I was checking out the new Cracker Barrel. Why? Because Duke wasn't selected to go to the tournament. After careful contemplation, I have no clue why the Blue Devils weren't in the field.
Sixteen of the 32 berths are given to conference champions, and while the Blue Devils were the Atlantic Coast Conference regular season champions, they faltered in the ACC Tournament with a loss to Maryland. Duke was left to hope for one of 16 at-large berths that were up to the discretion of the NCAA Selection Committee.
According to Jon LeCrone, committee chairman, there are nine criteria ranked in order of importance for an at-large bid. Apparently, 16 teams met more of those criteria than Duke. Although there were many surprising choices made (South Florida and UNC-Charlotte to name two), the most questionable choice over Duke is Clemson, a fellow member of the ACC.
The first criterion, win/loss record, is pretty simple. Duke: 15-5, 4-2 in the ACC. Clemson: 9-6-3, 2-3-1 in the ACC. After the regular season, the Blue Devils were first in the ACC and Clemson was fifth out of seven teams. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who has the edge in the first, and most important, category.
In the next measure, head-to-head results, Duke has an even more obvious advantage. In their only game this season, the Blue Devils crushed the Tigers 5-1 at Clemson. Duke coach John Rennie started six freshmen, Jay Heaps had a hat trick and Clemson managed to score on itself for the final goal of the game.
The third category, strength of schedule, is the Tigers' greatest asset, but they still only have a slight advantage-the Tigers did have a tough schedule, playing against three of the top four seeds in the tournament and six total teams in the field.
The Blue Devils weren't too far behind, though, playing against three of the top five seeds and five total Tournament-bound teams.
In actual play against top-ranked teams, Duke and Clemson each only won one game, although Clemson tied two. Additionally, all of the Blue Devils' losses came against teams selected for the tournament. The Tigers lost to N.C. State and Wake Forest, teams far from a tournament berth.
Duke is criticized for playing against teams which aren't exactly powerhouses, such as Pfeiffer and Appalachian State, but Clemson faced teams of similar caliber-Erskine and Mercer, for example.
The fourth category, RPI ratings, is a little more puzzling because the NCAA doesn't release those. RPI stands for Rating Percentage Index, which is derived from a team's Division I winning percentage (25%), schedule strength (50%), and opponent's schedule strength (25%). From this formula, Duke would seem to have the edge, but without the actual ratings, it's impossible to know.
In the fifth criterion, results against common opponents, the teams actually are pretty even. Both teams lost to the only non-conference opponent that they shared, Indiana. In the ACC, Duke beat North Carolina, N.C. State, Clemson and Wake but lost to Maryland and Virginia. Clemson beat Maryland and North Carolina, tied Virginia and lost to N.C. State, Wake Forest and Duke. It was Duke, however, that ended up with the regular-season ACC title, and Clemson that ended up fifth.
Generally, both Duke and Clemson play in the South Region. Duke was 9-0, undefeated in the region, while Clemson was 6-3-2.
The final four criteria are: results against teams in the tournament, results against teams out of region, record in final ten games, and report on injuries and available players. While these are important, they are weighted less than the measures already discussed. Suffice to say that the teams are pretty much equal on each of them.
There are, however, a few more facts that further point to Duke as the logical choice. While polls do not determine who gets an NCAA berth, they are often a good indication of how teams are regarded.
At the end of the season, Duke was ranked higher than Clemson in both the Soccer America poll and the NSCAA poll. Soccer America had Duke ranked No. 11 and Clemson No. 16. In NSCAA, the coaches poll, Duke was ranked No. 9 and Clemson wasn't even ranked in the top 25.
Also, ACC coaches voted seven Blue Devils to All-ACC teams and only two Tigers. Not to mention that Rennie gained ACC Coach of the Year honors.
Sitting here contemplating my soccer-less weekend, it still just doesn't make sense. Even discounting outside polls, Duke had a sizable advantage in the two most important criteria, win/loss record and head-to-head competition. Which is not to say that Clemson is not a good team. Maybe Clemson deserves a bid-just not one over Duke.
And it's not as if the people on the selection committee overlooked the Blue Devils or somehow forgot about them. In the televised selection show, after all 32 teams were announced, a commentator asked LeCrone the logical question, "Where's Duke?" LeCrone then read from a prepared sheet of paper that Duke did not have a strong enough schedule or enough wins against top-ranked teams. He knew that the question would come up because the committee consciously decided to exclude Duke.
Duke was also not chosen for the tournament last year, but with losses against North Carolina and Marshall, the Blue Devils truly were on the bubble. This year, there was no bubble, except for the one that burst for Duke following the selection show.
There are rumors about the committee being anti-Duke, and while I'm not saying there's evidence of that, their decisions on who to include in the Tournament just don't add up. Next year, the Blue Devils are hoping to win the ACC Tournament and secure an automatic bid-not leaving anything up to chance-and it seems like that may be the only way for Duke to find itself in the NCAA Tournament.
Anya Sostek is a Trinity sophomore.
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