I'll admit up front that I'm an eternal optimist. Any lifelong fan of the Dallas Mavericks has to be.
With only one game remaining, I look at the football team and see a program that has righted itself and overcome the misery of 1996.
Yes, Duke will likely end the season with only two wins and an 18-game Atlantic Coast Conference losing streak heading into '98. But the Blue Devils have reestablished themselves as a competitive team in '97, and because they only lose a few key players, Duke can realistically look to next year as a five- or six-win season.
The Blue Devils weren't all that far from hitting that mark this year. A fourth-down conversion by Northwestern thwarted one win, a controversial salute in Virginia helped cost another, and a Sims Lenhardt 46-yard field goal that missed by inches prevented an upset in Death Valley.
Not to mention the fact that Duke was tied with Wake Forest in the fourth quarter and only lost by six at Maryland. The Blue Devils even came closer to Florida State than they ever had before.
While in '96 Duke lost 11 games by an average of close to 20 points, their point differential this year has been pared down to eight per game entering this Saturday's contest at Kenan Stadium.
A likely 2-9 record won't earn Duke much respect this year, but this team is far better than its record indicates. And the biggest reason for optimism is that the players are still relatively young.
The defense has continued to improve with a core of six sophomores, led by Chris Combs, Eric Jones, Darius Clark and Kevin Lewis. Previous unknowns like Ryan Stallmeyer have started to excel. The loss of seniors Tawambi Settles and Chike Egbuniwe is big, but this is a unit that will, for the most part, remain intact.
"I see us being more athletic defensively," coach Fred Goldsmith said. "I'm encouraged that we've built up a little bit of depth. We lose very few people over the next two years."
The same holds true on offense. The loss of Corey Thomas will obviously be a big one, as will the departure of three linemen and Lay Marshall. But in Thomas' case, consider it this way: at least fans won't have to agonize anymore when they look downfield and see Corey 10 yards open and then overthrown by another 10 yards on a deep ball.
Realistically, assuming Reco Owens recovers from a torn ACL, he'll team up with Scottie Montgomery to make a similarly potent tandem as the Montgomery/Thomas duo this year. The two quarterbacks who throw them the ball will also have a year of experience under their belt. Either Spencer Romine or Bobby Campbell should end up the starter next year, and both should be vastly improved.
Not to mention the fact that running backs Letavious Wilks and Duanne Epperson have two and three years, respectively, of eligibility left. Along with the fullbacks, they have led the running game to over 30 yards more per contest than it averaged a year ago. Duke should continue a vast improvement at the skill positions a year from now.
"I can see it all starting to come together, where a year ago I couldn't," Goldsmith said. "The pieces are all there now. My expectations are for us to turn a lot of these close games into wins next year."
Of course, that means more expectations placed upon Goldsmith as well. Two or three wins next year won't be good enough. This year the Blue Devils showed they could be competitive with almost everyone, minus the top of the ACC (They would not lose to N.C. State by 31 today). Next year, Duke must start pulling out these close games-this team has given indications that they're headed that way.
Chalk this year up as a step in the right direction.
Joel Israel is a Trinity junior and associate sports editor of the Chronicle. He apologizes for predicting the Mavericks would win the NBA title after their 3-0 start.
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