I'm not much of an economics expert, or anything near it, but the reaction of fans on campus to the first two men's basketball games has resembled something like a panic on Wall Street.
Ten days ago, Duke opened the exhibition season with a 54-point win against the Upstate All-Stars. The word around town was this team is for real. San Antonio is a done deal, book your hotel and airline reservations now. There's no better investment in the market than this Blue Devil team.
Then this past Saturday rolled around, and the market crashed. The Australian National Team led Duke at halftime before finally succumbing by five points. The honeymoon was over.
"Oh my god! What happened to our team, I thought they were so good? Trajan, do something!"
But before you sell your stock, it's best to keep a few things in mind.
First of all, Upstate was a collection of former collegians who have nothing left to do but serve themselves up to schools looking to experiment with different lineups. This team was bad. Real bad. If Richard Dumas still had the spark that made him so promising his rookie year in the NBA, he'd be in Europe or the CBA right now, not wearing the complimentary Converse sneakers.
Thus Duke's 54-point win showed that, in essence, the Blue Devils are very adept at shooting wide-open threes and running three-on-two breaks. And the depth Duke displayed meant that a lot of players can hit wide-open threes and run three-on-two breaks.
The fact a collection of "All-Star" athletes who had never played together got layups off of inbounds passes was ignored, or overlooked. A few brave souls said amidst the cheers that the defense looked off, but they were drowned out by the cacophony of rah-rahs.
A five-point win over Australia was a much more accurate basis from which to judge. After all, just one night before the Aussies faced Duke, they dispatched fifth-ranked Clemson by six points. Australia's roster included a collection of pros who could fast-break and rebound like pros should.
And they gave the Blue Devils a rare preseason opportunity to experience crunch time late in the second half. Most didn't think Duke would get that chance until the finals of the Maui Invitational in a few weeks, when the Blue Devils are likely to play either Kentucky or Arizona.
But for whatever reason, fans were quick to jump on their team. I heard words like overrated, sloppy and inconsistent to describe a squad picked to win the Atlantic Coast Conference and slated third in the national preseason rankings.
Just as the judgement after last Saturday's game was unfair, so was this.
The overexuberance all started during the Blue-White scrimmage when Shane Battier hit a string of three-pointers, and his jersey was immediately hung from the rafters next to No. 33 after the game. I hear Elton Brand's is going up next.
But now the preseason is over, and maybe all will settle down. The afternoon before Midnight Madness, Mike Krzyzewski gave warning that it's going to take a while to make any kind of judgement about this team. When you have 11 viable players who all deserve court time, the right combination doesn't come overnight.
What the Blue Devils have at the moment is far more overall talent than we've seen in a few years. And that's it for now. The right mix, with this many players fighting for time, is likely at least a month or two away.
Pencil in two weeks from tomorrow as Duke's first test. The winner of an Arizona/Kentucky semifinal will likely await the Blue Devils in the finals at Maui. And yet even that game will only offer a glimpse of what might be down the road. In 1989 and '90, Duke faced similar early challenges against Syracuse and Arkansas, respectively, and lost both. The Blue Devils went on to play in the NCAA Championship game both years, winning the second time around.
Mike Krzyzewski teams are supposed to peak in March, not November. The best sign right now is the enthusiasm and hunger of the players in both practice and during games. This team is ready to make a run deep into the postseason. And that gives fans every reason to be excited.
But March is still four months away; it's too soon to be overzealous. The stock market always rises slowly over time, and so should this team. Be patient.
Joel Israel is a Trinity junior and associate sports editor of the Chronicle. He promises not to mention the fact that he is going to the Maui Invitational in 11 days.
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