On Trump and trade
If 2016 was any indication, governments around the world are going to spend an awful lot of time rethinking trade, investment and industrial development policy. The declines in manufacturing jobs, offshoring in various segments of production, and rapid mechanization of jobs in outbound sectors have combined to unleash fervor against globalization. Trump, Brexit and the campaign of France’s Marine Le Pen have channeled such anger with globalization into an assault on the neoliberal consensus that supports free trade and immigration as benefits across nations. It would be unwise to dismiss the concerns of their voters, as it was to reject any statistician or political scientist who predicted a Trump victory. If anything, the wave of populism has alerted us of the urgent need to address globalization’s shortcomings. We can do this without completely abandoning the systemic integration of the global economy and the international world order—major contributors to an overall decline in global income inequality since 2000.