It’s probably a good thing that the Blue Devils overcame that 10-point deficit Sunday at Madison Square Garden. They were able to get the 1,000th win monkey off their backs on their first try. And despite professing all week long that it was treating the St. John’s matchup as if it were any other game, a loss in New York would’ve added to the scrutiny surrounding the team as it prepares for its toughest two-game stretch of the season.
Two games against top-10 opponents. Two games in hostile environments where fans rushed the court the last time Duke came to town. Two teams currently looking down on the Blue Devils in the ACC standings, hoping to give themselves even more breathing room in the race for the conference crown.
Even with that milestone out of the way, Wednesday’s game at No. 8 Notre Dame and Saturday’s primetime contest at No. 2 Virginia will present back-to-back tests unlike anything the No. 4 Blue Devils have seen this season. The Fighting Irish and Cavaliers rank second and third in scoring margin but take very different routes to get there.
Notre Dame leads the nation in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.24 points per possession according to basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy. Four Fighting Irish starters are scoring more than 13 points per game entering Wednesday’s tilt at Purcell Pavilion, with guard Steve Vasturia and forward V.J. Beachem each chipping in more than eight.
Not only does Notre Dame score efficiently, but Mike Brey’s club can do it from all over the floor. Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton spearhead a roster of shooters that make 40 percent of their 3-point attempts and 52.1 percent of their total shots. The success from long-range is what could potentially cause problems for Duke, which has found success in its last three games with a 2-3 zone after N.C. State and Miami each drilled 10 triples in upset wins.
To beat a zone, you’ve got to be able to shoot over the top of it. That’s why zone was such a great—if unexpected—strategy for the Blue Devils against Louisville, Pittsburgh and St. John’s, all of which sit outside the top 230 in the nation in 3-point percentage.
Notre Dame ranks 16th in that department. Duke’s defense was markedly improved in its three games after the losing streak, but the Cardinals, Panthers and Red Storm still found openings—they just came up empty. Don’t expect the Blue Devils to be quite as fortunate if they afford the Fighting Irish those same looks.
If Notre Dame’s shooting and quickness present problems on the defensive end Wednesday, Virginia could give Duke fits on the offensive side of the floor Saturday in Charlottesville. That’s not a knock on the Cavalier offense—Pomeroy has Virginia pinned as the sixth-most efficient offense in the country at 117.8 points per 100 possessions, one spot behind the Blue Devils—but Tony Bennett’s defense is playing some of the stingiest defense the ACC has seen in quite some time.
The Cavaliers allow 49.1 points per game—yes, you read that correctly—and rank second in the nation in Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency rankings. They’ve held three opponents this year—Harvard, Rutgers and Georgia Tech—to fewer than 30 points in 40 minutes. And they only force 10.1 turnovers per game, which means Virginia usually doesn’t end possessions by forcing mistakes, but with suffocating, disciplined defense that leads to tough shots. In the Cavaliers’ 62-56 win against the Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish shot just 33.9 percent.
How do the Cavaliers do it? Consider this: Even after losing talented shot-blocker Akil Mitchell from last year’s ACC title-winning squad, Virginia has the tallest team in the country, taller even than No. 1 Kentucky. The average Cavalier player stands at 6-foot-6, able to contest at the rim and close up passing angles on the perimeter.
Because teams have to go so deep into the shot clock to find a quality shot against Virginia, the Cavaliers play at a snail’s pace of just 58.3 possessions per 40 minutes, the second-slowest in Division I per Pomeroy. The Fighting Irish are slightly more comfortable getting up and down, averaging 63.8 possessions per game, 6.2 possessions below Duke’s nightly mark.
If the Blue Devils were still looking for Krzyzewski’s 1,000th career win when they left for South Bend, Ind., the importance of the games Wednesday and Saturday would amplify ten-fold. Another loss thrown into the mix would have only cranked up the dial on the media chatter, manufacturing a distraction for them to discuss.
Instead, they’ll be able to break down what should be two wildly entertaining—but completely different—basketball games.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.