The 2012 race for North Carolina Governor made national headlines last week when incumbent and Democrat Governor Bev Purdue surprisingly announced she would not run for reelection. The announcement, which came just over a month before the filing period begins on February 13th, has led to large amounts of speculation over who will run in the Democratic primary, which is held on May 8th, the same day as its Republican counterpart.
On the other hand, the Republican primary seems to be all but decided. Former Charlotte Mayor and 2008 gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory has a clear advantage over his top challenger, Douglas Schell, who garnered only less than one percent of the vote when he ran for N.C. Governor in 2000 as the Reform Party candidate. McCrory has a clear fundraising and organizational advantage over Schell and he is simply more widely known and liked throughout the state.
On the Democratic side, many are happy to see Perdue go. Although she wasn’t disliked by the party, her poll numbers against McCrory were ominous. In early January, a poll administered by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a widely respected Democratic and national polling institute located in Raleigh, showed McCrory with a comfortable 11 point lead over Perdue. On top of that, 51 percent said that they disapproved of the job Bev Perdue was doing as Governor while only 32 percent approved.
Perdue’s departure opens the door for many candidates and two candidates have declared their candidacy while many other prominent North Carolina Democrats have been rumored to be considering a run. Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton declared his candidacy last Thursday, the same day Perdue announced she wasn’t running, and State Representative Bill Faison declared his candidacy this past weekend. When considering all of the candidates who are rumored to be considering a run in the Democratic primary, the number of potential nominees hits double digits.
Luckily, PPP released a poll on Monday pitting McCrory against 13 potential Democratic candidates. Unfortunately for Democrats, most of the numbers PPP released mirror the results of their McCrory-Perdue poll that they released earlier in the month.
Just two of the 13 potential candidates are within 10 points of McCrory. Those potential candidates are Sen. Kay Hagen (D-NC) and Erskine Bowles, who is the former President of the University of North Carolina system and former White House Chief of Staff under Bill Clinton. According to the poll, McCrory is enjoying a seven point lead over Hagen and a two point lead over Bowles. Out of luck again, Democrats are going to have to hope that Bowles enters the race because on Monday, Kay Hagen declared that she was not going to run.
Bowles is currently the co-chair of Barack Obama’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform along with former Republican Senate Minority Whip Alan Simpson. The Commission, which released their bipartisan report on how to close the deficit in December of 2010, will earn Bowles increased bipartisan support.
The report has been, for the most part, ignored by the Obama administration presumably due to its cuts to entitlement spending and its lack of support from the liberal base. Having said that, Obama might be giving Bowles a call in the near future if he is serious about winning North Carolina in 2012 presidential contest.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.