Since polling for the Republican primary began, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich have all experienced what it is like to be the “frontrunner,” though their reigns at the front of the pack were all rather short.
The first two and perhaps most famous state primaries, Iowa and New Hampshire, will both take place before the spring semester starts (Iowa on the 3rd and New Hampshire of the 10th). These primaries hold the most weight in determining the winner simply because they are before all the other primaries and they give the candidates a chance to gain momentum going into the big primary election days. Also, impressive performances in early primary states are a great fundraising boost for candidates.
These primaries have a history of picking the eventual winners. In 2008, President Barack Obama won Iowa and John McCain won New Hampshire. Iowa has picked the eventual winners for the Democrats the past four elections, including an unopposed victory for Bill Clinton’s reelection bid. Before 2008, Iowa had picked the eventual Republican nominee four times in a row, including unopposed reelection victories for both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush. In the last nine Democratic primary elections, New Hampshire has picked the eventual nominee six times. In the last 11 Republican primary elections, New Hampshire has picked the eventual nominee nine times.
That being said, the results of these primaries aren’t final. In 2008, McCain finished fourth in Iowa. In 1992, Clinton also finished fourth in Iowa, only garnering 4 percent of the vote (he was running against Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin). In 2008, Obama just barely lost to Hilary Clinton despite poll numbers showing an easy victory for Obama.
Having said all that, let’s look forward to this cycle’s primaries, starting in Iowa. Right now, all of the Republican primary candidates, except Jon Huntsman, are campaigning in Iowa. Huntsman is in New Hampshire because he has decided to ignore Iowa and focus all of his resources on New Hampshire.
Looking at the polling coming out of Iowa, there seem to be two tiers of candidates. On the top tier are Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who are both polling around 20 percent. The second tier consists of Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry, who are all polling around 10 percent. In between these tiers is Newt Gingrich, who was a clear frontrunner a couple weeks ago but has now plunged well below the top tier and is quickly headed towards the second tier.
In New Hampshire, predicting the outcome is much easier. Romney has never trailed in polls coming out of the state and no candidate has even posed a serious threat. The fight in New Hampshire is for second place. Gingrich and Paul have similar poll numbers right now, though Gingrich’s numbers are on the decline and Paul’s are on the rise.
The one person to watch in New Hampshire is Jon Huntsman. The fate of Huntsman’s campaign depends on New Hampshire. Since mid-October, Huntsman’s numbers have been steadily yet slowly rising in the state, though he stills trails Gingrich and Paul. Although all the candidates are in Iowa, he is still focusing on New Hampshire so there is a good chance he might put up some surprising numbers when the votes are counted in a couple weeks.
For those that are wondering, Gingrich, who has fallen quickly after rising to frontrunner status earlier in December, is still leading the national race, though his lead is slim now and he is still falling. His campaign is hoping to hang on until the January 21st South Carolina primary where his poll numbers are still good. Whether or not his campaign can withstand two primary losses and another month of campaigning is yet to be seen.
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