Students sick with the flu can take solace knowing that their coursework can be applied to minimizing the spread of their disease.
A Fuqua School of Business study, published May 25, applies game theory to fighting the flu.
At a time when numerous countries are preoccupied with developing and distributing a vaccine for the H1N1 virus to as many people as possible, the study shows that giving away a nation’s medicinal resources to another is the most effective way to curb the proliferation of disease.
Researchers from Fuqua and the European School of Management and Technology determined policymakers’ optimal course of action when an epidemic breaks out in a neighboring country that has little access to vaccines and medication. Based on a game theory-like approach to this scenario, it would be in the best interests of developed countries to allocate their medicinal resources to the country in which the epidemic originated, referred to in the study as “country zero.”
“This sounds like an altruistic action, but it is actually selfishly beneficial,” said Peng Sun, a researcher for the study and associate professor at Fuqua. He added that this strategy works to stop the disease at its point of origin, thereby significantly reducing the spread of disease into the surrounding developed nations.
The study also highlights the benefit of a centralized approach to the allocation of medicinal resources. Researchers found that more countries are likely to donate their resources if they make a collaborative decision to do so, rather than if countries are left to make individual decisions. Organizations such as the United Nations and the World Health Organization could carry out this centralized planning by facilitating the creation of contracts between nations, mandating that each country donate resources to a country experiencing the outbreak of a disease.
The research, though hypothetical in nature, gives valuable insight to policymakers by displaying the value of collective decision-making over singular decision-making.
The second phase of the study will explore what the best course of action is when a disease has spread to multiple countries, such as in the current case of H1N1—commonly known as swine flu, said Liu Yang, a researcher and Fuqua graduate student.
The Obama administration is fighting swine flu with an approach similar to the one proposed by the study. Last week, President Barack Obama announced a plan to allocate 10 percent of the U.S. swine flu vaccine supply to Mexico. If reality follows the model developed in the study, this action could greatly reduce the proliferation of swine flu in the United States.
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