Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a No. 15 seed has defeated a No. 2 seed only four times.
After being a Gerald Henderson coast-to-coast layup away from getting upset last year, though, Duke has a newfound motivation to avoid being victim No. 5.
When the No. 2 Blue Devils (28-6) face No. 15 Binghamton (23-8) in Greensboro Thursday night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, they recognize there will be a target on their backs after last season's near-debacle. They also know that Duke fans will be anxious to get past the first weekend of the Tournament after back-to-back years of early-round upsets.
"If we haven't learned from the last two years, then it's pretty stupid of us," junior center Brian Zoubek said. "It's different this year, obviously, with what we've accomplished so far. But we're not done and we're ready to move on."
Despite the expected comparisons to past disappointments, though, this season Duke enters the tournament in a nearly opposite state. Last year, the Blue Devils were conspicuously tired as the season concluded and entered the Tournament after being upset 78-74 in the semifinal of the ACC Tournament by Clemson.
That decline was most prevalent in then-freshman Kyle Singler's play, as his minutes and scoring output slowly diminished as the season wore on. His slump culminated in a 1-for-9 shooting performance in the loss to Clemson, followed by a disappointing six-point effort in Duke's 73-67 second-round Tournament loss to West Virginia.
This year, however, the Blue Devils enter March Madness after winning the ACC Tournament in dominating fashion against Florida State, and the team appears to be at full strength, with sophomore Nolan Smith returning from a concussion to score six points in 25 minutes against the Seminoles.
"Last year guys were getting worn down towards the end of the year," Smith said. "Right now, I feel great, the team feels great, and it feels like we're in the best shape we've been in in a long time."
Singler also appears to have shaken off last year's late-season struggles, averaging 18 points per game in this year's ACC Tournament while playing the entirety of each contest.
"Kyle, at the end of last year, he looked tired," Smith said. "He'd be laying in the training room for hours after practice, but now he's back... joking around, smiling, having fun. He feels great, and he's playing great."
Duke will also be a bit familiar with this year's opponent, as Smith has experience playing with some of the Bearcats' stars. The sophomore played with both Emanuel Mayben and D.J. Rivera in AAU.
Led by Rivera's 20 points per game, Binghamton exhibits a balanced scoring attack, with three other players averaging double figures. However, the Blue Devils can take advantage of their opponent's lack of size down low, as the Bearcats have one player taller than 6-foot-9, and only Rivera and senior Reggie Fuller average more than six rebounds per game.
Duke also holds a major advantage in terms of postseason experience, as this marks Binghamton's first visit to the NCAA Tournament after winning the America East conference.
Still, after narrowly avoiding embarrassment at this time last year, the Blue Devils maintain that they will not underestimate the Bearcats.
"The guys who were there last year know we can't overlook anybody," Smith said. "[Belmont] played us down to the wire, so going into this game it helps to know that we have to play great. We're going to take one game at a time, play every game like it's our last one."
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