Can Duke football compete? Program faces questions

Three games into the 2006 campaign, Duke is once again facing long odds of playing meaningful games as the season progresses into late autumn and winter.

The Blue Devils' 0-3 start-including shutout losses to Virginia Tech and Division I-AA Richmond-puts the team on pace for its 12th straight losing season, which would be the 21st for the program in the past 24 years. The only postseason play Duke has gotten a taste of in that time span was the 1989 All American Bowl and the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl.

With the team struggling on the field this year, supporters of the program are wondering, as many have for a long time, about the current and future state of the football program.

The debate over Duke football is certainly nothing new. For years, many have questioned whether it is possible for-or in the best interest of-a school with Duke's admissions and academic requirements to compete in a major conference like the ACC.

Some have argued that Duke should drop its standards in order to compete with its conference foes, while others have opined that the University should get rid of football altogether, as it is a drain on resources and the continuing losses are demoralizing.

Another group, however, has maintained that other schools with similar profiles to Duke-such as Vanderbilt, Stanford, Northwestern and Wake Forest-have achieved relative success in building their football programs while still striving to maintain academic standards.

The question for Duke, then, is why hasn't the same happened in Durham, and what needs to be done for Duke's program to be competitive in the future?

The recruiting trail

"The football guys understand that they aren't just charged with winning football games. They need to bring people in who can fit in and do the schoolwork," said Chris Kennedy, Duke's senior associate athletic director. "It's counterproductive to recruit players who aren't able to cut it in the academics. Kids who are struggling so much to keep up in class that it's a miserable experience-they aren't going to help you on the field."

The relatively high admissions standards and the resulting smaller prospect pools have forced Duke and similar schools to recruit on a national scale in order to find players to fit the academic profile. Duke has fewer players on its roster from North Carolina than from either Georgia, Texas or Florida.

"The costs of recruiting nationally are significant," Kennedy said. "We have to cast a wider net, but at the same time, recruiting nationally is not as much of challenge as it used to be because there is so much more information out there."

National recruiting often necessitates a national presence in a team's scheduling. Several of the top academic programs have attempted to raise their respective profiles outside of their conference's region by scheduling road games against national powers. In addition, coaches are often able to use road trips as recruiting vehicles.

Vanderbilt opened its season at Michigan, and Duke has scheduled non-conference games against traditional powerhouses for the next two seasons. This year, the Blue Devils travel to Alabama Oct. 7, and the team will play on national television at Notre Dame next season.

"We understand that we can help recruiting nationally by moving the team around," said David Williams, Vanderbilt's Vice Chancellor. "So every now and then, you'll see the Michigan-type game, but we can also play on a national stage by playing Rice or by playing Stanford, and we should be very competitive with them."

The decision of whether to schedule games against top teams, however, is not so clear cut. Games against programs like Notre Dame bring in significant sums of money for the athletic program, but often come at a competitive price. Goldsmith said the Blue Devils should use their nonconference schedule to help achieve their goal of six wins for bowl eligibility.

"Duke doesn't need to be playing payout or money games against those power schools," Goldsmith said. "The University has plenty of money, and with the ACC, Duke has a good TV contract. All that does is add losses and keeps people from coming to games."

Coaching stability

Since Mike McGee's coaching tenure ended in 1978, the Blue Devils have been led by seven head coaches, none of whom has been at the helm more than five seasons. And since Steve Spurrier left for Florida after winning the ACC in 1989, Duke's four head coaches have combined for a record of 42-139-1.

Some of suggested that the lack of stability at head coach has been the biggest factor in Duke's futility. "One of the most important things for a school like Vanderbilt or Duke is the fact that you have to stop the revolving chairs of coaches," Williams said. "When you hire a coach, you have to be confident and say we've got the right one now, and you have to stand behind that."

The highlight of the post-Spurrier era was the 1994 season, in which the Blue Devils, under Goldsmith, went 8-4 and played in the Hall of Fame Bowl. Goldsmith, who was named National Coach of the Year, said he benefited from a number of talented seniors who were recruited on the heels of Spurrier's 1989 season.

Goldsmith was fired after the 1998 season, when the Blue Devils went 4-7 and were blown out in their final three games. Carl Franks was brought in to revive the program, but Goldsmith said the firing came a year before he could have profited from a successful recruiting effort following the 1994 season.

"When they relieved me, we had a lot of juniors and seniors from that recruiting year, and seven of them made it to the NFL," Goldsmith said. "If there hadn't been a change, or at least if they had kept the offensive coordinator on, and if the system hadn't changed, then the next year they would have been good and could have benefited in recruiting. So one of the current problems with Duke football is that they missed out on one of those cycles."

The question of coaching stability is once again facing the Duke faithful. Following the 0-3 start, some have called for the firing of Roof, who is in his third full season as head coach.

Kennedy said the department has assured Roof of his job security.

"We have been pretty patient with our coaches," Kennedy said. "The people that are calling for Ted Roof to be fired are being quick with the trigger, because he hasn't even been here four years. He doesn't have all his guys yet. He hasn't been through a full cycle."

The redshirt debate

Results of the combination of stringent admissions requirements and coaching turnover are evident on the 2006 Duke team.

The Blue Devils do not have a single transfer on the team and have seen a number of players transfer from the program or leave with eligibility remaining. The trend has resulted in a roster that features just 13 seniors and 25 true freshmen.

Because of the exodus of older players, Duke has been unable to follow the practice of redshirting the majority of its freshmen, a practice which is common among major-conference programs. The practice is especially important for smaller schools as they attempt to stay competitive against the perennial powerhouses.

From 23 class-of-2005 signees, Duke has just nine redshirt freshmen. The Demon Deacons-who are off to a 4-0 start in head coach Jim Grobe's sixth season-have 19 redshirt freshmen from a class of 23.

"It's difficult to have a great program when you are relying on a lot of young players," Wake Forest Director of Athletics Ron Wellman said. "So we have taken the redshirt approach to all of our freshmen, and for the most part we have been successful in that. Our philosophy is to rely on fourth- and fifth-year guys, and we are close to getting to that level."

Roof has declared his intentions to play fewer freshmen as he grows his program, but 12 were listed on Duke's depth chart to begin the season.

"You never know what's going to happen in a season, but I think coach Roof won't have to play many of his freshman big guys," Kennedy said. "And those are the ones that profit the most from the redshirt season-guys with big frames who need to put on sometimes 30 or 40 pounds. I think that will really help them before they have to play against the 24-year olds that some schools are playing."

Last year, Duke's lack of depth was evident in several ACC matchups. The Blue Devils were either winning or within two scores at halftime against Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Florida State. In the combined second halves of those four contests, Duke was outscored 114-24.

The expectations game

Much of the debate surrounding Duke football centers on the question of legitimate expectations for a program that has not played in the postseason for a dozen years.

"Winning records and bowl games is not unreasonable. I think we're a year or so away from that, but it's definitely reasonable to expect that," Kennedy said. "Success begets success... I don't see why people think you have to go up and down, and up and down."

Wellman said Wake Forest had even higher expectations for its football program.

"We have the same expectations for our football program as for every other sport in our program, and that is to contend for ACC championships," Wellman said. "And if we are challenging for ACC championships, we should be one of the elite programs in the nation. There is no reason that anyone has ever identified to me why we should not be of that caliber."

Kennedy held that the athletic department's expectations regarding the football team extended far beyond the winning percentage.

"One of our expectations is to maintain everything we've done off the field," Kennedy said. "We don't want to do anything that would drop the graduation rate to the low 80s. We've also had very few off-the-field problems, and we certainly want to maintain that."