With alarming regularity, a five seed is upset by a 12 seed in the first round of the NCAA men's tournament each season. This year there are two No. 12 teams poised to make a run at a first-round upset, and perhaps at the Sweet 16.
Billy Donovan and the Florida Gators were at one point on top of the polls, but then everything fell apart. And although the Gators made a solid recovery at the end of the season, beating Vanderbilt and Alabama in the SEC tournament, Donovan's season may end abruptly when his team plays Manhattan in the first round.
The Jaspers have one of the premier guards in the country in Luis Flores. The senior averages 24 points per contest, which is four more than anyone else in the entire tournament field, and has been crowned the MAAC Player of the Year for the past two seasons. Last year, Flores and Manhattan gave future national champion Syracuse a very tough game in the first round; this Thursday in Raleigh the Jaspers may get over the hump.
Another team capable of a first round upset is the Murray State Racers who have a very favorable matchup with Illinois. The Fighting Illini come into the game after being demolished by Wisconsin in the finals of the Big Ten tournament. Guards Dee Brown and Deron Williams lead the way for Illinois, yet both players are very erratic and streaky shooters.
The Racers have five seniors who log more than 20 minutes each game and have the experience and talent to beat Illinois. Even though second leading scorer Kelvin Brown is suspended because of alleged drug charges, Murray State still has a chance to pull off the upset. Cuthbert Victor, Murray State's top scorer and the Ohio Valley Conference regular season and tournament MVP, should be able to put up big numbers against Illinois' weak front line.
Manhattan and Murray State have the potential to force first round upsets, but it is not likely that they would reach any further than the second round or the Sweet 16. However, there is one team in the tournament that did not get the respect it deserved by the selection committee and thus has a chance to wreak havoc on the field. The Wisconsin Badgers won the Big Ten Tournament Sunday only to find out later that they were only given a six seed. One bright spot: the Badgers will play their first two games in Milwaukee.
However, the big challenge for Wisconsin will be a probable second-round matchup with talented three-seed Pittsburgh. But with Big Ten Player of the Year Devin Harris, who leads Wisconsin in points, steals and assists, Wisconsin may find itself in the Sweet 16.
There are also a few other teams that could surprise people. Nevada plays inconsistent Michigan State in the first round and has the talent to beat the Spartans. Western Michigan, which has beaten Arizona State, USC and Alabama, also drew a favorable first round opponent in Vanderbilt. The Commodores lost by 22 to Florida in the SEC tournament and have cooled off since their hot start.
With a lack of dominant teams in the NCAA, and the parity of today's college basketball, no one should be surprised to see upsets abound in the first two rounds of this year's tournament.
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