"One play here or there."
It's head coach Carl Franks' new postgame mantra and it's what has separated Duke from victory in four games already this season.
At N.C. State, the most obvious deciding play was Brent Garber's missed field goal from 65 yards out as time expired. But that was a desperation play that--by Garber's reckoning--will succeed perhaps one time in 10 from that distance.
Three plays earlier, Duke had a much better chance. After the Blue Devils recovered an onside kick at the State 49 with 16 seconds remaining, Adam Smith dropped back and fired a pass to Lance Johnson, who was cutting across the field at the 38.
But Smith threw it behind Johnson, who reached back and got his hands on the ball, but could not bring it in.
If the pass is complete, Duke has the ball around the 45 with about five seconds left. From there, Garber, who is 3-of-6 on 50-60 yard field goals and had blasted 47, 52 and 45 yarders earlier, would have a good chance to win the game for Duke.
"Our timing was just a little off," Smith said. "I was really conscious of the time on the clock: Trying to get rid of the ball, let him catch it and call a time out.... It was a little behind him. I think it was a bad throw, most likely.
"I know if he had caught that pass, Brent would have been able to kick it in."
Almost three minutes earlier a single play made the onside kick and desperation field goal necessary. Trailing 17-14 with N.C. State moving the ball and trying to kill the clock, Duke jumped offside.
It appeared there was contact before the snap, flags flew and the Blue Devil secondary stopped.
But the whistle didn't blow and Jerricho Cotchery took off down the sideline. By the time the defense reacted, Cotchery had a 10-yard lead, and when Wolfpack quarterback Philip Rivers hit him in stride, the junior wide receiver was on his way to a 53-yard touchdown.
In the first quarter Duke drove to the N.C. State 12 and wide receiver Darryl Scott overthrew a pass to a wide open Chris Douglas. Two plays later, the Blue Devils are sacked on fourth-and-one.
On Duke's next possession, Smith underthrew Khary Sharpe on what would likely have been a touchdown, and certainly a first down. One play later, a fake field goal failed miserably, as Garber was tackled immediately after receiving the direct snap.
"A field goal, missing a couple touchdown passes, a couple sacks, giving up a couple of long passes, things like that are what games like this come down to," Franks said.
"When two teams are competing like that, both teams are going to have mistakes and it's just going to come down to who can make one more play than the other team. Right now, the other team is finding that one play more than we are."
In the fourth quarter against Virginia, with Duke trailing 16-14, Smith had a first-and-10 pass batted back at him, but rather than batting it down, Smith caught it for a momentum-killing 12-yard loss.
Later in the fourth quarter, the defense surrendered its devastating play when the Cavaliers completed a 56-yard touchdown pass after a flea-flicker.
At Northwestern, Duke blew a late lead by fumbling twice and throwing an interception.
At Wake Forest, Duke had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown and an interception returned for a touchdown that inexorably turned the game against the Blue Devils in the first quarter.
By comparison, there were only two games all of last year when the Blue Devils came within a few plays of victory; most games required 20 plays here and 15 plays there for a reversal of outcome.
If games were decided by yardage instead of points, the Blue Devils would be 5-3 instead of 2-6, and if they had gained three more yards at Northwestern, they would be 6-2 by these rules.
"It's a bittersweet feeling," Douglas said. "You're upset you didn't win, but at the same time you realize how good this team is getting and you realize we really can play with anybody."
Of course, the one play here or there is the difference between a good football team and one that is surprising, improving or getting good.
Good teams make the big plays, or have a cushion built up so a big play can go against them late in the game and they'll still win. Duke isn't there yet, but the comforting connotation of improving is that it will be soon.
The Blue Devils are young and fairly inexperienced. Smith had never been in the position where he needed to complete a 10-yard pass in 16 seconds to defeat the No. 12 team in the country.
After not being competitive in a while, Duke is now learning what it takes to win close games.
Rather than sulking after the heartbreaking loss, the Blue Devils began thinking about next year's game against the Wolfpack and the four games, all winnable, remaining this season.
"This program is turning around," Douglas said. "A lot of people didn't believe, and now a lot of people do."
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