Opening up the field for one of North Carolina's seats in the U.S. Senate, Jesse Helms announced Wednesday that he would not seek re-election to a sixth consecutive term next year.
The 79-year-old senator's decision raised speculation as to who would replace Helms on the Republican ticket, and could also encourage more Democratic candidates to run for the seat. Helms' announcement aired Wednesday on WRAL-TV in Raleigh.
Citing the impact of time and expressing gratitude to his supporters throughout his nearly 30 years in office, he said he would not run again.
"The point is," Helms emphasized, "I would be 88 if I ran in 2002 and was elected and lived to finish a sixth term."
But he also stressed that he would remain active in the Senate for the remaining one-and-a-half years of his term. "I am by no means announcing my retirement," he said. "A great deal of work lies ahead in the Senate this fall and next year."
Still, Helms' decision means that the Republican Party must find another candidate to run in 2002. Several Republicans have expressed interest in running, but in deference to Helms, none have announced their candidacy. The Republicans most commonly mentioned as potential replacements for Helms are former presidential candidate and two-time Cabinet member Elizabeth Dole, former Charlotte mayor and gubernatorial candidate Richard Vinroot, former U.S. senator Lauch Faircloth and U.S. Rep. Richard Burr.
Dole, Woman's College '58, took what could be a possible first step toward the Senate race Thursday when she switched her voter registration from Kansas to "another jurisdiction." Dole has strong Republican backing at the national level, said Christopher Schroeder, professor of law and public policy studies and co-chair of the Center for the Study of Congress. "My information is that the White House in particular would very much like Elizabeth Dole to be the nominee," he said.
But Michael Munger, chair of the Department of Political Science, pointed out that Dole had no campaign organization in North Carolina, unlike Vinroot and Faircloth, who have both already run statewide campaigns.
"It's a hard problem to overcome," he said. "If I were Elizabeth Dole, I'd give it a [pass] and do something else."
Munger predicted Vinroot to be the most likely Republican nominee, but doubted his ability to win a general election. He characterized Vinroot, who lost last year's gubernatorial election to Mike Easley, and Faircloth, who lost his Senate seat to John Edwards in 1998, as "damaged goods."
Burr, the representative for the 5th District, has served four terms in the House, but never run for statewide office.
Bill Cobey, chair of the state Republican Party, declined to speculate on which Republican would make the strongest candidate.
But he did predict that the seat would remain in Republican hands.
"Oh, we're going to retain it," Cobey said, though he admitted the task would not be easy. "It's going to be a vigorous campaign.... It would have been a vigorous campaign if Sen. Helms had run."
Still, Schroeder said, Helms' announcement gave the Democrats a boost, since Helms, who was elected all five times he ran, would have been favored to win re-election once more.
"Their chances are better now with him gone," he said, although he cautioned that the seat would still be a toss-up, not an easy victory for the Democrats. "Historically, open seats go about 50-50."
The only Democratic candidate for the Senate seat so far is North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, the first woman to ever serve in that position.
But State Rep. Dan Blue of Raleigh has not discouraged speculation that he will run. Blue has served 11 terms in the House and is the former speaker and minority leader.
Former governor Jim Hunt, who lost to Helms in 1984, had also drawn attention as a potential candidate, but he denied Wednesday that he was interested in the seat. Nevertheless, Munger said Hunt might still be considering a run.
"That's what they all say until they announce that they are running," he said.
Munger added that either Hunt or Blue would be more likely to gain the seat than Marshall. "I don't think there's a chance [for Marshall]," he said. "She hasn't held a heavyweight elective office."
State Sen. Michael Reeves, also of Raleigh, had declared his candidacy but recently dropped out.
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