It's about as familiar as any coaching adage: Win the games you're supposed to win and take your chances in the rest. Familiar to everyone except N.C. State's head coach Mike O'Cain, who is single-handedly seeking to answer a different question: What happens when you lose the games you're supposed to win and win the games you're supposed to lose?
The Wolfpack (3-2, 1-1 in the ACC) has had as up-and-down a season as imaginable. Wins over two highly ranked teams, then-No. 2 Florida State-just the second conference defeat in FSU history-and then-No. 11 Syracuse, vaulted the Wolfpack into the top 25. But right on the heels of success have been failures-immediate losses to unranked teams.
So, if little else is working in Duke's favor in Raleigh this weekend, it is that the Blue Devils (3-3, 1-2) are an unranked team.
"This is a formidable task," Duke head coach Fred Goldsmith said. "There's no accident why they beat Florida State and Syracuse. There is a tremendous amount of talent on that football team."
Little of that talent extends to the kicking game, however. In N.C. State's loss to Georgia Tech last weekend, its punting unit fumbled its way to 16 Yellow Jacket points. Against Baylor, three missed field goals and another mishandled punt were the difference in a three-point loss. With the 107th-ranked punting unit and just three field goals this season, the Achilles' heel of this Wolfpack squad isn't hard to find.
On the flip side, Duke was able to end its 21-game ACC losing drought due largely to the outstanding play of its special teams. Behind four field goals from ACC Specialist of the Week Sims Lenhardt and a blocked punt by Darius Clark, the Blue Devils rolled to their first conference triumph since 1995.
"Going in week to week, I tell Coach I can get [a punt block] every week," Clark said. "After looking at film I tell him there isn't anybody who can stop me."
Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, special teams only makes up a small percentage of the game. And the rest of the game is where the Wolfpack excels. Led by the Jamie Barnett-to-Torry Holt connection, the N.C. State offense has romped over its competition and is ranked 10th in passing offense and 20th in total offense.
"Our defense has had a tough time with N.C. State the last couple of years," said Goldsmith, who owns an 0-4 career mark against the Wolfpack. "We have to do everything we can to give a better account of ourselves on defense to give our offense a chance to do the things they need to in this game."
Despite giving up an average of 43 points a game to N.C. State over the last three years, and facing a Heisman candidate wide receiver, it will be a confident Duke defense that takes the field.
"We weren't really prepared [last year]," Clark said. " This year, we've been giving it all we have and staying real focused. Everybody's actually been in shape and willing to go that extra mile to win, because we have the players on our team that can win now. For once, I feel very confident."
Offensively, Goldsmith is continuing the disappearing/reappearing act with quarterback Spencer Romine. Though a now-healthy Romine is expected to start Saturday's contest, Goldsmith has yet to tip his hand as to who the starter will be.
"We'll have to examine it a little bit further and see how they perform on the field," he said. "Spencer's been the starter, he's done a lot to earn it. And he's done some good things. He's had some rough weeks."
For Goldsmith and his team, this game may go a lot further than local bragging rights. With a winning season just three victories away, a bowl bid has become the goal of this Duke team.
"I think it's a very reasonable goal to look for," Clark said. "We just set our minds to it week in and week out and go out and play ball. We know we can compete now. There shouldn't be any limitations to what we can do."
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