Perhaps last year's Sugar Bowl foretold Florida State's future.
The top-ranked Seminoles stood within a touchdown of Florida early in the third quarter, when their star running back, Warrick Dunn, succumbed to injury. With Dunn exited FSU's chances for victory; the Gators scored the game's final 28 points and crushed the 'Noles, 52-20.
Ten months later, with Dunn in the NFL, Florida State has recovered, but its running game has not.
The Seminoles (4-0, 2-0 in the Atlantic Coast Conference) rank seventh out of nine ACC teams in rushing offense. They hold the No. 4 spot in both national polls and are coming off a 47-0 whipping of bitter rival Miami, but even after gaining 174 rushing yards against the Hurricanes, they are still averaging less than 100 rushing yards per game.
Dunn, a four-year starter at FSU, has moved on to professional stardom with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Clearly, his departure left a serious dent in the FSU backfield.
"He is one of the best running backs in the National Football League right now," Duke coach Fred Goldsmith said of Dunn, who is on pace to gain more than 1,100 yards this season.
Dunn was not Florida State's first great rusher, though. He followed a long line of star backs that included Sammie Smith, Dexter Carter, Amp Lee, Edgar Bennett and William Floyd. What, then, separates Dunn from the rest?
"Right now, Warrick Dunn is a superstar his rookie year in the NFL, and Amp Lee is not a nobody-he's been in the league-but he's not a prominent superstar," Duke cornerback Tawambi Settles said. "So there is a big difference. In Warrick Dunn, they had something real special, a great back."
As if the graduation of Dunn-their all-time leading rusher-didn't hurt the Seminoles enough, they also lost tailback Rock Preston, their second-leading rusher in 1996. On top of that, they return only two of their starting offensive linemen.
But so far, their stagnant ground game has not hurt the Seminoles. They have passed for an astounding 329 yards per game en route to scoring 36.5 points per contest.
"I don't think they've gotten committed to" the running game, said Duke defensive coordinator Bob Trott, who alleges that FSU's ground game is as solid as usual. "[FSU coach Bobby Bowden] is playing games with their heads that they can't run the ball. I don't believe all that stuff about they don't have a running game."
Certainly, through four games the 'Noles have focused more on winning through the air than on running. Senior quarterback Thad Busby and standout receivers Peter Warrick and E.G. Green have given their running backs-inexperienced junior Dee Feaster and untested freshmen Davy Ford, Vannez Gooch and Travis Minor-time to mature. But one might expect their passing success to help their running game, rather than limiting it.
"You'd think that people would have to focus so much on the passing game that it might open up some things," said Duke linebacker Chike Egbuniwe, who leads the ACC with 78 tackles. "They'd like to run the ball, but if they can't, they don't seem all that worried about it because they know they can have success through the air. It's not like without the running game, they're hurting."
Since, as Egbuniwe said, the Seminoles would like to run the ball, some believe that they will try to establish their ground game against a Duke defense that has allowed more rushing yards per game than any other unit in the ACC. That fact is deceiving, as the Blue Devils have faced option running teams in Army and Navy. Nonetheless, FSU appears more likely to force the run against Duke than to take an untested ground game into the second half of its season.
If the Seminoles do run more on Saturday, at least one Blue Devil won't be completely disappointed.
"I'd rather play against the run than chase their receivers all over the place," Egbuniwe said. "If they think it's going to be a practice session, that's fine, but we'll see on Saturday."
By handing off the ball instead of throwing it, the 'Noles-who have gained a measly 3.2 yards per carry-might seem to be playing into the hands of the upset-minded Blue Devils. Not necessarily, warned Settles, who refuses to condemn FSU's backs for their poor early-season production.
"They're Florida State, so you know they have great athletes at tailback," Settles said. "They're not as good as Warrick Dunn, but they have real shifty, real fast backs, great weapons that can go to the end zone every time they touch it."
As a result, Settles considers shutting down the FSU running game-regardless of its showing so far-a key to Duke's defensive game plan.
"Even though passing is their best part of the game, we have to take the run away just to make sure we can defend the pass," he said. "If they're doing them both, then you're on your heels the whole game. So we have to stuff the run so we can react and do things to stop the pass."
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.