Pollster offers inside look at '96 election

During his speech at the Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy Friday, renowned Democratic pollster Peter Hart told an audience of more than 100 to put themselves in the shoes of the president--and then addressed them exactly as such.

Periodically throughout his address, Hart, who does extensive polling work with the Wall Street Journal and NBC, addressed the audience as if it were President Bill Clinton in the Oval Office, and instructed "the president" on how he should tailor his strategy for the 1996 election.

Hart started his humorous and informative presentation, entitled "The Search for Leadership: Politics, Polls and Presidents--1996," by giving an explanation for the Republican Congressional revolution of 1994: "The Devil went to Newt Gingrich, and said I can make you a celebrity and Speaker of the House in return for your soul,' and Gingrich replied,What's the catch?'"

He then moved on to explicate the general mood--or "EKG"--of the American public and went on to describe specific areas in which the president is doing well or where he needs the most improvement in terms of public opinion. He showed the audience the president's "report card," in which polls taken by his company have shown that Clinton is on the "honor roll" for caring about and staying in touch with the American people, while he is "failing" in moral values, being presented as a strong leader and achieving his goals.

Continuing by discussing Clinton's strategy in 1996, Hart said the president must do four things to be reelected: find a focus, fight for the middle class, locate his own sense of his character and establish himself as the president for the 21st century. Having promised repeatedly during the 1992 campaign that he could feel the nation's pain, Clinton now needs to "show voters he can ease their pain as well," Hart said.

Hart described his job as a pollster as simply "going out and asking people questions." He noted that an important facet of understanding polls is to know that a question's wording can drastically affect the results of a poll. One common technique employed in polling is the use of focus groups to gain deeper insights into the minds of voters, and from these studies Hart said he has learned that the most important things voters care about in a candidate are "effectiveness, character and strong leadership."

Hart presented a colorful example of a focus-group discussion regarding the main players in the '96 election. He said that when he asked members of the group to relate each candidate with a member of their family, most found Colin Powell to be a wise older brother or father, Bob Dole to be a mean uncle, and Clinton a teenage brother. Another anecdote that evoked a surprised roar from the audience was that at this time, 37 percent of the American public does not know that there is a presidential election in 1996. "The American public is at the point where they are just tuning in," Hart said.

Members of the audience said that they not only enjoyed what Hart had to say, but also the way in which he said it. "It's fun for people to see how a pollster puts on a briefing to the presidentÉ it was very well done," said Dick Stubbing, professor of the practice of public policy.