Natives of Canada and experts on the country gathered at the Center for Canadian Studies Monday night to watch the returns from a vote on a referendum that would have facilitated Quebec's independence from Canada.
As the results came in narrowly in favor of the federalists, who support a united Canada, the reactions of those present ranged from celebration to disappointment to confusion.
John Thompson, professor of history and director of the Canadian studies program, said that Quebec's future remains uncertain because the margin of the vote--1 percent--was so narrow. "There are 7.5 million people in [Quebec], 5 million voters and the majority is smaller than a football crowd at Wallace Wade stadium," he said.
"There's a lot of ambivalence," Thompson continued. "One of the most remarkable things for an American about the campaign is to look at the kind of symbolism that they're using." He said that in one of the Independence Party posters, the "o" in "oui" is the Canadian dollar coin. Thompson said that campaigning with that symbol would be the equivalent of George Washington marching his troops under the British flag.
Thompson said that the vote Monday demonstrates that Canada has some serious problems it must resolve. "This was a serious crisis of national cohesion," he said. Because of the "no" vote, he said the first move will now have to come from the Canadian government.
The United States should be very concerned with the status of Quebec because there is the potential for instability in Canada and the result of Monday's vote has not lessened that possibility, Thompson said. He said that violence on the part of those favoring independence could not be ruled out.
Had the referendum resulted in a vote for an independent Quebec, the United States would have experienced serious repercussions.
"About 5 percent of our Gross Domestic Product depends upon trade with Canada," Thompson said. "It's the largest two-way trade that has ever existed between any two countries in the history of the world. The departure of Quebec would affect our trade in the sense that it would change all of our trade rules with regard to products that originate in Quebec, as they would no longer be entitled to most-favored-nation status in the U.S.... it would be a bureaucratic nightmare."
Among those happy at the result of Monday's vote was Patricia Wood, a native of Montreal, who is a visiting assistant professor in history and Canadian studies. Wood voted no on the referendum.
"I voted no for both Quebec and for Canada," Wood said. "Both Canada and Quebec would be damaged economically, politically and I think psychologically and emotionally by the breakup," she said. "I believe there is a lot worth preserving, in terms of French-Canadian culture and the French language in Canada, and I think they're better protected in a united Canada."
Other Quebec natives, however, disagreed with Wood's evaluation.
Mark Champagne, a second-year graduate student in cell biology, also from Montreal, said that a vote for independence would send a strong message to the rest of Canada, but added that he would not be pleased with the implications.
"All day long I have been asked by my friends how I would feel about either outcome and I said I would cry in both cases.... I have always said that divorce is not a solution to marriage," Champagne said Monday night. "Most of my life I thought that breaking Quebec away from Canada wasn't a good idea and that there was still a way to make this work, but the issue is so polarized... I'm glad that the rest of Canada finally saw that we were serious tonight," he said.
The result of the vote, although not a clear victory for either side, will have a significant effect on where Canadian policy towards Quebec goes from here.
"The closeness of the vote may persuade those who were unwilling to give special status to Quebec that, in order to keep the country together, that [granting that status] is the way to go," said Joel Sokolsky, a visiting Fulbright scholar and a professor from the Royal Military College in Canada.
Thompson said that until such a decision is made in Canada, Americans simply have to sit and wait to see what happens. "For the time being, we are not faced with any big decisions," he said.
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